Crop Conditions    ^

 

Brazil Soybean Planting

 

Brazil’s soybean crop is moving along with some planting delays, but they are still aiming at record output. Analysts this week have pegged 2026 soy production at a record 178MMT despite irregular weather that has slowed seeding in some regions. USDA and other analysts are in the same ballpark, with official forecasts around 175MMT on record area planted. The key message is that Brazil is currently on track for large supplies unless the weather turns worse.

 

Australia Harvest

 

Fresh numbers out this week from ABARES and market commentary show Australia lifting production estimates again as harvest rolls along. ABARES now forecasts wheat at 35.6MMT, barley at 15.7MMT and canola at 7.2MMT, putting 2025 winter crop production about 10% above last year. Analysts note that this could be Australia’s third-largest wheat crop and biggest ever barley crop, with canola about 50% above its 10-year average. That’s another big non-Northern-Hemisphere supplier adding weight to global wheat, barley, and canola balances right now as Canada and the US recently wrapped up big crops of their own.

 

India Crops

 

India’s rabi season is off to a strong start. Official data from the Agriculture Ministry show total rabi sowing passing 39.3 million hectares by November 28, with wheat acreage up nearly 17% YoY and pulses, coarse cereals, and oilseeds all ahead of last year. A separate analysis this week notes winter-crop seeded area running roughly 12% ahead of the same time last year, reflecting good moisture and a strong incentive to plant pulses and wheat. For our exports, the combination of larger Indian acres and new tariffs on yellow peas is a key factor for medium-term demand.

 

Palm Oil Crops

 

In palm, there’s no major new crop shock this week, but prices are reacting to demand signals. Malaysian crude palm oil futures hit a two-week high yesterday on news of fresh Chinese purchases of US soybeans and firmer crude oil prices, which tend to support veg-oil demand. Overall, palm oil remains well supplied, and recent price strength looks more like a short-term reaction to China and crude than a sign of tight crops.

 

Black Sea Winter Crops

 

Winter crops around the Black Sea are generally well established but with some moisture concerns. Ukraine reports winter wheat sowing for the 2026 harvest at roughly 98% of intended area, with farmer groups saying crops are entering winter in good condition after a mostly favourable November. Regional weather reports have pointed out increasingly dry conditions in parts of Hungary, Ukraine, and southwest Russia, and drought remains a concern in some Black Sea areas even as temperatures turn seasonally colder.

 

Supply & Demand    ^

 

Stats Canada Dec 5th (Production Report Preview)

 

Ahead of Thursday’s Stats Canada report, trade chatter has shifted toward “bigger crops” rather than cuts. Analyst surveys summarized in the last 24 hours point to upward revisions for most principal field crops versus the earlier model-based estimates. Crops improved significantly in the time between the satellite snapshots in June-July, to the farmer surveys in Oct-Nov.

 

Reuters surveys are calling for all wheat at 38.49MMT (spring wheat 27.3-28mmt), durum at 7.15MMT, canola at 21.25MMT, peas 3.97MMT, lentils 3.26MMT, oats 3.66MMT, barley 8.90MMT. We will compare the report tomorrow to AAFC November reporting, to get a sense of how that might affect stocks/use and overall price trends for each crop. Will have more info go out on this tomorrow!

 

China Veg Oil Imports

 

New official November import data aren’t out yet, but the latest USDA China oilseeds update still shows the trend that China has been trimming palm oil imports and leaning more on soy-complex oils. That report notes palm oil imports being reduced as high prices and softer demand made it less competitive in China’s edible-oil mix, while soybean oil remains well supplied thanks to strong crush and diversified bean origins. Recent market commentary also highlights that China has been buying large volumes of Brazilian soybeans and various oils under new trade agreements. For canola and soyoil exporters, that means watching not just volumes but which oils China favours as trade disputes and tariffs shift.

 

India Pulse Crop Demand

 

India’s policy moves are signalling that pulse demand remains structurally strong but increasingly protected. Last week, India’s High Commissioner in Canada floated the idea of a trade deal that would guarantee some Canadian pulse sales, even as India imposed a 30% import duty on yellow peas to help domestic farmers. Officials acknowledged that India still needs foreign pulses to meet consumption, but want more predictable volumes and prices through quotas or specific arrangements rather than open-ended, low-duty imports. For us, that means long-term demand for lentils and peas stays intact, but near-term tonnage and margins will depend heavily on how India balances farmer politics against food-inflation concerns.

 

Bean Oil Use

 

Bean oil demand remains strong in the background even as futures prices have softened in the last couple of weeks. Analysts note that record NOPA crush and lower-than-expected soyoil stocks earlier in the fall reflected heavy industrial and food use, especially into biofuels. More recently, veg-oil futures dropped across regions, with Malaysian palm hitting four-month lows and Chicago soyoil slipping on cheaper crude and some uncertainty around U.S. biofuel policy, but that’s been more about sentiment than a collapse in use. For now, bean oil consumption is still running at a historically high pace, though any policy change on U.S. biofuel mandates in 2026 will be critical.

 

Russia Exports

 

Russia remains an aggressive wheat exporter, but its export duty policy is sending mixed signals. As of November 26, Russia’s wheat export duty was increased to 232.3 rubles per tonne, up about 15% from the previous week, while duties on barley and corn stayed at zero. That hike comes on top of Russia’s existing quota and “grain damper” mechanisms designed to balance domestic food prices with export competitiveness. Even with the higher duty, Russian offers remain very competitive for many tenders. Any further increases or new sanctions could start to slow exports and support world prices for competing exporters.

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Fuel & Fertilizer    ^

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OPEC Meetings

 

OPEC+ met over the weekend and chose to leave crude output levels unchanged for the first quarter of 2026. The group is keeping more than 3 million barrels per day of cuts in place, which is roughly 3% of global demand, while signalling concerns about a possible supply glut if they increase production too quickly. A new mechanism was also agreed to reassess member “maximum capacity” and reset production baselines for 2027, which could shift quotas in favour of countries that invest more in capacity. Fuel prices will stay heavily driven by demand and macro sentiment rather than big new supply cuts or hikes from OPEC in early 2026. We are still encouraging some fuel purchases at the current price ranges available right now. Cover yourself for a couple of months.

 

Iran Nitrogen Production

 

The nitrogen market is still feeling the effects of earlier disruptions in Iran. Industry reports through 2025 have highlighted repeated shutdowns and constraints in Iranian urea and ammonia production tied to natural-gas supply issues and regional conflict, which temporarily took a significant chunk of global export capacity offline. Recent global urea-market summaries continue to flag Iran as one of several fragile suppliers, with geopolitical risk making buyers pay attention to alternative origins. The net result is that even when prices soften, the market keeps a risk premium on nitrogen because Iran and parts of the Middle East can swing from full production to partial shutdown in a hurry.

 

Russia Fertilizer Exports

 

Russian fertilizer exports remain under sanctions and tariff pressure, but shipments have continued, especially into regions without strict sanctions. EU and allied sanctions packages this fall focused more on energy and finance, while Russian fertilizers still flow into many parts of Africa, Asia, and Latin America with only moderate additional costs. Analysts warn that any move toward “full” sanctions on Russian fertilizer could tighten global supply materially, given Russia’s status as the largest urea exporter and a key potash and phosphate player. For now, the risk is more about politics than immediate physical shortages, but it hangs over pricing for 2026.

 

US Fall Fertilizer Demand

 

There’s no official report on US fall demand this week, but retail price updates show farmers have been booking product despite higher prices. DTN’s late-November and early-December coverage indicates most major products (especially NH3) are up versus last month and well above year-ago levels, implying steady buying into fall application in the Corn Belt. Analysts note that some growers have been reluctant to fully price 2026 needs at current levels, hoping global prices soften later, which could delay a portion of demand into late winter. Overall, though, fall 2025 demand has been sufficient to keep North American nitrogen and phosphate prices supported.

 

India Fertilizer Tenders

 

India remains aggressively active in the urea tender market, anchoring global demand. Indian Potash Limited (IPL) issued a major urea import tender in early November, seeking large volumes for delivery into early 2026, with bids valid until late November. Diplomatic notices and commercial reports indicate India has been locking in over 1.5–2.5 million tonnes helping set a ceiling for global urea prices. That buying confirms India still needs substantial imports and will keep underpinning nitrogen demand even as high prices squeeze farmers elsewhere.

 

Canada Fertilizer Prices

 

Several global and regional updates point to still-elevated prices going into 2026. World Bank and private-sector analysis released in November suggest global fertilizer prices will finish 2025 about 20% higher on average, with urea, phosphate, and potash up as much as 30–40% YoY in some areas. Argus also reports that fertilizer affordability has “recovered some ground” lately thanks to lower Middle East urea prices and renewed Chinese exports, but emphasizes that urea is still more expensive than before the earlier conflicts. The odds of a dramatic drop by Jan–Feb 2026 look low, and it’s more likely we see sideways to modestly softer prices. I would be picking up fertilizer on this recent pullback that occurred in the back half of November.

 

Trade & Tariffs    ^

 

China/Canada Relations

 

China–Canada ag relations remain strained but not frozen. China has imposed steep tariffs on Canadian canola oil, meal, and peas, and a provisional anti-dumping duty of 75.8% on canola seed that effectively closes that market for now. Canadian officials, including the agriculture minister and Saskatchewan representatives, visited China in September and reported “constructive” talks, but there has been no further mention of tariffs lately. This week’s news instead is that China has turned heavily to Australian canola, booking nine cargoes for shipment into early 2026, which underlines the urgency for Canada to cultivate alternative oilseed markets. They did this recently with Pakistan, but it’s not enough!

 

India Pea Tariffs

 

India’s surprise 30% import duty on yellow peas is now in force and dominating pulse trade conversations. A government notification at the end of October imposed the duty on shipments with bills of lading dated November 1 onward, reversing the earlier plan to allow duty-free imports through March 2026. Canadian and Russian peas are both affected, and analysts expect Indian pea imports to shrink sharply for at least the next year as a result. The move was driven by pressure from Indian farmer unions worried about cheap imports undercutting domestic prices, and most analysts do not see the duty being rolled back quickly. This will remain a pressure for pea markets in the short-term.

 

India Lentil Tariffs

 

Lentil tariffs are more touch-and-go. India currently has a customs duty of 10% on lentils and a 10% duty on desi chickpeas. News circulated in November about a possible hike to 30% on lentils, but other analysts suggest it’s just rumour and not official policy. Other trade-monitoring services flagged a temporary tweak in duties on “certain lentils” and chickpeas at the end of November, and also noted measures allowing duty-free imports of some pulses to reduce food inflation. The net situation is that India is signalling willingness to adjust lentil tariffs but hasn’t pulled the trigger yet. This needs to be closely monitored into 2026.

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Currency & Finance      ^  

 

BOC Rate Policy

 

The Bank of Canada last cut its policy rate to 2.25% at the October 29 decision and has signalled a pause for now. Guidance from Canadian banks and economic letters over the last two weeks stress that the BOC is likely to hold rates steady into 2026 unless there is a sharper-than-expected downturn. The next interest-rate announcement is scheduled for December 10, and preview notes suggest the Bank will focus on soft but not collapsing growth and a still-weak loonie.

 

FOMC & USD Trend

 

The U.S. dollar index has been under steady pressure as markets price in a high probability of a Fed rate cut at the December 9–10 FOMC meeting. Fed funds futures now imply roughly an 85–90% chance of a cut, up sharply from about 30% in mid-November, according to derivatives-market trackers. Recent Fed communications acknowledge elevated uncertainty and growing downside risks to employment, even as inflation has cooled from its peak. A weaker US dollar generally supports commodity prices in US terms. For us, it’s a mixed bag because some of that benefit is offset when the loonie strengthens.

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Livestock    ^

 

Cattle Trends

 

Cattle markets have just come through a sharp correction but are trying to stabilize. From mid-October to early November, feeder cattle futures dropped roughly 19% and live cattle about 12%. More recent updates from last week show feeder and live cattle futures starting to rebound on short-covering and recognition that the fundamental story about a very tight US cattle herd hasn’t changed. Overall, this looks more like a major correction within a longer-term uptrend than a full breakdown, but volatility is high and intraday moves remain large.