All Regions / Do you think the highs are in on all markets now that Stats Canada came out with all the big numbers?

 

It's a bit rushed to make that call. The industry already knew there were big crops in Canada, so this should be a temporary setback for any crops that react to the info. It's likely that after the 'reaction trade' is out of the way, the markets will return to focusing on the other S&D info coming up. I always find it interesting that a number on a piece of paper holds this much weight, only to be forgotten a few weeks later, when something else comes up. I am going to do my usual price collection for all crops on Friday, and see if there are any obvious signs to sell more. There's still time & reason for recoveries.

 

All Regions / It looks like canola broke that trendline you were talking about earlier this week. What's the next plan for sales?

 

Yes, the January canola futures broke below the $630-635/T trendline support leading up to Stats Canada production estimates. Now the goal is to either get back above that trendline area by the end of the week, or hold at the next support range of $600-610/T. I still anticipate more chances to lock in canola on a re-test of the last target at a minimum, which is $660-670/T referencing the March futures. I'm using that month because there are only a couple of weeks left for companies to reference January futures. The next support to hold on March futures is around $620-630/T if they don't recover by the end of the week.

 

All Regions / What should we do with unpriced January canola basis contracts?

 

If the January futures don't re-test $650/T before the mid-December deadline, you will have to consider rolling them out to March futures and targeting $670/T instead. The net result will be about the same (less the admin fee they charge). And having until February might be enough time to see the longer-term target range of $685-700/T. I'm still not ruling out a test of that higher level later on. I wouldn't sell January basis contracts now that we have seen this pullback, unless you really need to cash out or don't want to take on the risk with the roll out to March.

 

SK-8 / I have a -$35/T canola basis that was rolled over from old crop once already. Do I continue rolling or take the price now that we see Stats Canada calling it a record production this year?

 

I don't really want to recommend selling at this level. A roll to March would put your basis at around -$52/T (depending on the admin fee they charge). A move up to $670/T on March futures would get you $14/bu instead of taking the $13.33/bu that you would lock in today.

 

All Regions / What are some things that can change to help canola futures?

 

Canola futures would benefit from Chinese tariffs being removed, South American crop issues during their peak growing season in Dec-Feb, and other veg oil supply concerns, such as winter rapeseed crop conditions and palm oil production issues. Biofuel use is still clipping along at a strong pace in North America. That's a helpful factor for sure. After those events, it would be Canada S&D for the 2026 crop and other black swans that we don't know about today.

 

SK-8,9 / I can get $4.75/bu for feed barley. Should I be selling more?

 

We have seen feed prices improve by .30-.40/bu in the past month. Low-end regions are now seeing $4.75-5.00/bu while high-end areas are upwards of $5.50-5.80/bu. That is a good bounce to consider some more sales on feed barley. We are recommending some more sales on malt barley, faba beans & feed wheat as well.

 

MB-3 / We are being offered $8/bu for wheat in March. Is that a sell or should we wait?

 

$8/bu is a good opportunity for some sales based on the current position of futures and the S&D outlook. I haven't seen that number since the summer on wheat. I don't expect much more than .30/bu weakness on any pullbacks, and we still need a move above $5.90/bu on Minneapolis futures to confirm the next .40-.60/bu upside. I would sell another 15% on this deal and also try a target for $8.50/bu on another 15%.

 

SK-10 / I can get $7.32/bu for HRS in December. Is this a good move to catch up some sales?

 

We have been recommending sales of wheat in the $7.25-7.75/bu range for a couple of weeks now. As long as the price is in that range, it's an okay spot for some small sales to catch up, cover cash, or whatever other reasons you might be needing some movement sooner than later. We will have some more recs go out once that additional .40-.60/bu upside hits, or if there are any big sell signals from the market.

 

SK-8 / What do you think about buying Phosphate for $1200/T?

 

There has been a 5-7% decrease in Phosphate prices over the past month. There are many balls in the air that can help or hurt us on fertilizer in the next 2-3 months. With the risk in mind, I lean to buying at least 50% of what you need, and maybe even all of it on this pullback. The trend can be sideways to maybe slightly lower into Jan-Feb, but I'm not willing to risk it all on that. It's the same story on all fertilizer products right now. You can refresh on all the recent fertilizer news by visiting gsminfo.ca/news2580

 

SK-9 / I'm seeing $6.95/bu for yellow peas at our local elevator for December movement. I was thinking maybe a $7.10/bu target would be a good idea. What is your outlook on peas?

 

I currently have .30/bu pegged as the best case upside until there is trade resolution with China or some crop issues in India that help reduce tariffs. Without that, we are relying on supply issues in 2026 to help reset the market in our favor. With tariffs reduced or removed I would immediately bump the upside potential to .50/bu or even $1/bu. We are watching for any seasonal upside into year-end (normal conditions allow for that ~75% of the time) and will have some recs go out soon. I would try a $7.25/bu target for a couple of weeks and then we can re-assess if it doesn't get picked up.

 

SK-8,9 / Is $14.05-14.10/bu for Sept-Oct 2026 canola a good starting point?

 

Yes, I would start with 5-10% on any offers that are $14/bu or better, and I would also target $700/T on Nov 2026 futures for another 5-10%. We will make an official recommendation when more areas are closer to that $14/bu level. You need at least $13.50/bu on a 45bpa crop to do okay as a starting point based on our margin analysis. $14/bu is the minimum 'sweet spot' number though.

 

SK-10 / I can get $14.20/bu picked up in July or $13/bu picked up in December for canola. What do you think?

 

You are gaining .30-.40/bu on that deal by waiting until July. That's covering off .05-.07/bu/mth storage cost and 7-10% opportunity cost on the interest you'd earn if you were to just sell for $13/bu now and invest the cash. That's a worthwhile hold to be over $14/bu in 7 months from now.

 

MB-1 / Lots of line companies are pushing us to make more soybean sales as they say basis will deteriorate after Christmas. There are some $14/bu targets getting hit. Should we be advancing sales or even selling out completely?

 

If you can get $14/bu targets picked on soybeans, that's a good opportunity to sell most or all your soybeans. We won't go to 100% on our sales trackers yet because we like to have one or two sales later on for folks who like deferring/hauling later. We ended up pushing total sales to 70% on a recommendation earlier in the week.

 

SK-10 / What price should we be selling some red lentils for?

 

We have been suggesting small sales on any offers of .23/lb or higher. I heard a couple of exclusive bids at .24/lb in MB and other areas still hitting .23/lb earlier in the week. I wouldn't sell for less than that.

 

AB-15 / We have a 3-crop rotation of canola, wheat, and barley. Land rent is in the $120-140/acre in our area. Should a guy be grabbing some if it's available? With these grain prices and high inputs, I'm not sure if there's much profit left. What do you think?

 

You're still profitable on canola at $140/ac rent with $14/bu canola and a 40bpa+ yield. Wheat & barley are closer to the break-even without some bigger yields. You need $7.50/bu on a 70bpa yield for wheat or $5/bu on a 95bpa yield of barley if your land rent is $140/ac, just for some reference points to consider.

 

AB-16 / I have an offer to sell rye for $5.15/bu FOB in February. What are your thoughts on that?

 

There isn't much hope for upside on rye right now. We are still encouraging sales in the $5.00-5.60/bu range, depending on the area that you are in. We will also make some more recommendations soon.

 

MB-3 / Our local milling company is offering $4.10/bu for Feb oats. We are at 50% sold and are thinking about making a sale. What do you think?

 

That price is the best we have seen in quite a while, since before harvest anyways. The upside is limited to .20-.30/bu on oats right now. I would be taking another 20% on that offer you have, and setting a target for $4.40/bu on another 20%.