US Winter Wheat Conditions
The latest US Drought Monitor map still shows meaningful dryness in parts of the winter wheat belt, and that keeps a “spring risk premium” a possibility even while wheat is dormant. The key point for markets is that winter wheat can look fine right now, but if the Plains stay dry into late February and March, the condition ratings can fall fast once the crop breaks dormancy. Traders are watching for a pattern shift because moisture timing is important right now.

 

India Rabi Planting & Conditions
India’s weekly rabi area report shows plantings tracking strongly overall, and wheat acreage is running ahead of last year in many regions. The weather story is mixed, though, because parts of North India have been complaining about a lack of winter rain, which can raise irrigation demand and elevate yield risk if it drags on. For pulse markets, the big takeaway is that India’s domestic outlook still hinges on late-season moisture during pod filling, not just seeded area. I saw a report that pulse plantings were 6% below the 10-year average, so that helps too.

Brazil Soybean Conditions
Brazil’s soybean story remains a big crop unless weather changes, with official forecasting still pointing to record or near-record production. The market is watching pockets of stress and harvest pace, but the larger pricing pressure comes from the expectation that Brazil supplies will be large enough to compete hard for export demand. That’s the headwind for North American soybean values, especially once Brazil export programs accelerate, going forward.

 

Argentina Soy Planting
Argentina’s soybean planting is basically in the final stretch, but rainfall deficits are the swing factor for yield potential. Even with acres mostly seeded, the market’s sensitivity is about whether the big areas get enough moisture to help fill the crops later on. If dryness persists, it can turn a normal South American supply story into a tighter one pretty quickly.

Palm Oil Crops
Malaysia’s latest MPOB coverage shows exports improved late in 2025, while inventories remained heavy, creating a classic tug-of-war for palm prices. But some reports are now talking about production easing and exports remaining steady, which will continue to support a higher palm oil price. Any sustained palm recovery is supportive for veg oil values, and that can help canola trends as well. Palm oil futures have recovered off the lows by 8% and are just starting to move through some resistance levels on the charts. We are keeping a close eye on this! 

 

Black Sea Winter Crops
In the Black Sea, the big watch is winterkill risk from severe cold snaps and whether snow cover is adequate to protect the crop. Sov Econ flagged slightly deteriorating conditions tied to dry weather, and that’s the kind of headline that can wake wheat futures up fast when funds are leaning bearish. If there’s any hint of crop issues there or in the US, it will kick in short covering & possibly new long positions by the funds. That’s one factor that can help carve out the bottom on wheat.

 

Supply & Demand

 

AAFC Postponed
Ag Canada postponed their January reporting on principal field crops in Canada earlier this week. They didn’t say why, but I wonder if it’s because the recent changes in China tariff policy & some exports to China might result in some re-jigging of the S&D. It was going to be the first look at 2026 acres in this report, so we are in anticipation of this one to help adjust our Profitability & Break-Even spreadsheets for you. Stay tuned!

 

China Imports
China has been actively managing supply by mixing origins. They hit a major US soybean buying pledge through state buyers, while private crushers still lean toward cheaper South American supply. On canola, China picked up 60k tonnes of Canadian canola, but more is needed to help chew down the canola stocks on hand. They are still buying from Australia as well. The takeaway for me is that China isn’t stopping buying, and it’s nice to see Canadian supply back in the mix.

Fuel & Fertilizer

 

US/Venezuela Fuel
Reuters reported Venezuelan oil exports under the US supply deal have been moving, but more slowly than the headlines were implying earlier on. The market sees ‘more barrels’ as a generally bearish situation for oil prices if it truly adds supply, but slow logistics reduce the impact. Oil futures have been strengthening so far in 2026. A move above $62/bbl would be the next bullish signal and further signs that spring fuel should be purchased by now.

 

OPEC Meetings
The next OPEC meeting will be on February 1st. This is important because any tap turns on supply can force oil prices up or down. We will take our cue on trend from the signals that come at $62/bbl and any fresh updates from this OPEC meeting next month.

 

China Fertilizer Exports
There is recent coverage confirming China’s phosphate fertilizer exports are being restricted with a policy pointing to suspended exports until August 2026. If that stays, it keeps global phosphate supply tighter than it otherwise would be, and that tends to keep phosphate values supported. For Western Canadian planning, it’s another reason phosphates can stay sideways to higher even if other products are feeling softer.

 

India Fertilizer Tenders
India was only able to secure a portion of the urea they tried for on their latest tender. That can mean a temporary dip in urea prices until they come back with another tender. Their tender prices have a big impact on the prices that are set for products the retailers are sourcing.

 

Canada Fertilizer Prices
Our Canadian pricing well has dried up a bit lately. I heard a couple prices through customer chats at Crop Production in Saskatoon last week, but otherwise it has been quiet. The last numbers on my fertilizer trackers are $750-775/T Urea and $1165-1190/T Phosphate. These numbers may be low with the recent changes to fertilizer news & trade info. We are still recommending to buy fertilizer now as prices generally will strengthen into spring and the risk/reward for a possible $50/T drop aren’t worth it right now.

 

Iran Tension
Josh Linville tweeted about Iran tensions putting some uncertainty & elevated price risk for Nitrogen, but I wasn’t able to connect the dots with any news articles or other sources. I will keep an eye out for any more info regarding this. It may be something that was discussed at the World Economic Forum that’s been going on this week.

Trade & Tariffs

 

World Economic Forum in Switzerland
Carney’s speech was received as a clear push back against a fraying rules-based system. He warned that tariffs are being used like weapons and argued Canada needs more strategic autonomy, and multiple reports noted the room response was strong, including a standing ovation. Trump’s message went the other way. It grabbed attention, but it also heightened the sense that allies and delegates are openly uneasy about tariff threats and the Greenland rhetoric. Carney’s tone played well, while Trump’s tone reinforced uncertainty and more volatility risk for currency and trade flows.

 

US/India Trade & Pulse Tariffs
Ongoing bilateral trade negotiations between the US and India have taken a new twist this week as pulses, especially yellow peas, are now a contentious issue. Two senators from key pulse-producing states have urged Trump to press PM Modi to cut or remove India’s 30% import duty on pulses, arguing the tariffs disadvantage US farmers and should be a priority in trade talks. Both sides are trying to find common ground on agricultural access while India defends its domestic farm interests. If Trump has any success on this, it would pave the way for similar discussions with Canada on pulse crop tariffs. A small silver lining if there’s one to grasp for pulses this week.

 

Supreme Court Ruling Delayed:
Reuters reporting this week continued to frame the Trump tariff legality case as still pending at the Supreme Court, with rulings issued on other matters while the tariff decision remains undecided. The market takeaway is uncertainty, because a ruling could validate tariffs, strike them down, or create a messy transition that still leaves new tariffs replacing old ones. Once the ruling hits the market we will provide a special report on how it affects grain prices (if at all).

 

China Canola/Pea Tariffs:
Canada & China have reached an agreement to remove tariffs from canola meal & peas, while tariffs on canola seed are expected to be reduced to 15%. These changes will be in effect starting March 1st. In exchange, Canada will slash tariffs on Chinese EV’s. This news has had an immediate impact on canola & pea prices. We noted a run to $650/T canola futures and a .75/bu or more gain on pea prices since mid-December. Now the golden ticket is to see some sustained imports of Canola seed & peas by China in the coming months!

 

Currency & Finance

 

BOC Rate Policy:
The Bank of Canada’s next interest rate announcement is scheduled for January 28th and it includes a Monetary Policy Report. That matters for the CAD because the tone around inflation, growth, and trade uncertainty can move the loonie even if the rate itself is as expected. The loonie’s direction remains tightly linked to rate expectations and broader risk sentiment. The futures are oversold & mid-range right now. There is good support at 71 cents and it would take a move above 73.5 cents to confirm any further upside. 73.5 remains the converting point if you need to buy some USD for the short-term.

 

FOMC & USD Trend:
The Federal Reserve’s next meeting is January 27–28th as well. Reuters polling this week leaned toward expectations for the Fed to hold steady through at least March, which is supportive for the USD if inflation stays sticky. The USD needs to hold the trendline support at 98 cents to avoid any further setback. A lower USD helps strengthen US grain & oilseeds, but pressures the CAD, and reduces CAD exchange value often reflected in the basis. Another tug-of-war situation for grain prices.

 

Livestock

 

North American Cattle Supply
The supply remains tight, with the herd still historically small and feedlot inventories not showing the kind of surge that would signal easy relief. Tight supply supports high prices, but it also means packers and retailers adjust margins and throughput, which can create sharp short-term price swings. The market stays hypersensitive to weight trends, placements, and slaughter pace because there isn’t much buffer.

 

Screwworm Updates
USDA’s status update has kept New World screwworm on the radar, and this week’s news included fresh concern around detections in Mexico near the Texas border. Any restriction on Mexican feeder exports tightens the feeder cattle supply picture for US feedlots and can support prices, even if the cash market takes time to reflect it. This headline risk can cause sudden futures spikes or reversals. Futures reacted negatively to the initial announcement due to uncertainty. Real supply-driven changes will be a net positive for cattle markets.

 

China Resuming Canada Beef Imports
Reuters reported China lifted its ban on Canadian beef, with the first shipment expected soon after Carney’s visit. The near-term price effect may be limited because North American supply is already tight, but strategically it reopens a high-value outlet and improves Canada’s export options. Longer term, it’s a bullish demand access story for Canadian beef if volumes are increased.