US Crop Progress:
The first US corn and soybean condition ratings came in decent, with corn rated 67% good-to-excellent and soybeans 66% good-to-excellent. That is not bearish enough to kill the weather premium, but it does tell the market the crop is not starting in disaster mode. Winter wheat remains the concern, especially HRW, while spring wheat conditions are still early, but important because North American wheat supplies are already projected to be tighter. It will be interesting to see what USDA WASDE has to say next week.

 

Australia El Niño Effects:
Australia’s wheat crop is forecast to drop sharply, with ABARES pegging output at 26.7MMT, down about 26% from last year. The drop is due to lower planted area, dry conditions, and high fertilizer costs. Australia is a major wheat exporter (top 3), so a smaller crop should provide some support for global wheat prices, even if cheap Black Sea pressure futures in the short-term. Canola, barley, and pulses are all expected to see lower production for the same reasons as wheat. This builds some support & upside for all markets down the road.

 

Canada Crops Outlook:
Saskatchewan seeding was 52% complete for May 19–25, still behind the five-year average of 74%, while Alberta was 74% seeded for the week ended May 26, also behind its five-year average. Manitoba was sitting around 55% last week. I anticipate these numbers will be significantly better in this week’s crop reports, after a stretch of better weather allowed for some catching up.

 

We are watching for establishment & conditions ratings this week. The market takeaway is that Western Canada is making progress, but the delayed start means early June weather matters more than usual for crops.

 

India Crop Conditions:
India’s crop outlook is turning more weather-sensitive because forecasters are watching a weaker monsoon setup. The government has already trimmed kharif fertilizer demand expectations because lower rainfall could reduce crop activity. For pulses, that provides some support because poor monsoon moisture would raise the odds of more import demand. We are watching for trade & tariff announcements for more clues on this.

 

Brazil Second Corn:
Brazil’s second corn crop is looking large enough to limit a global corn panic at the moment. Unless late-season weather cuts the crop down, this is one reason why corn will have a tough time breaking past $5/bu on the futures. The other big reason will be the US supply stats.

 

Black Sea Crops:
Black Sea crops remain the main pressure point for wheat prices because Russia and Ukraine continue to offer a competitive supply at a lower price. Recent weather bulletins show rain across Ukraine, western Russia, and surrounding areas, which helped winter grains and oilseeds but caused some summer crop planting delays. The key detail is that Black Sea production risk has not disappeared, but cheap supply from that region is still limiting wheat upside in the short-term.

 

EU Crops:
EU reports have trimmed yield estimates for soft wheat and rapeseed, with rapeseed yield potential reduced by 2% from the previous month, now sitting around 5% below the previous year. That keeps European rapeseed and canola markets supported, especially if the Australian crop is also smaller.

 

Supply & Demand  top

 

USDA Next Week:
The next WASDE on June 11th will be important because the May report already gave the first full 2026-2027 balance sheets, and now the market will be watching whether USDA adjusts wheat production lower again, whether corn demand can stay strong, and whether soybean acres and biofuel demand keep bean oil supported. For now, pre-report talk is more about risk management than a clear bullish surprise, but that doesn’t mean we won’t get one!

 

Strait Of Hormuz:
The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the biggest outside-market risks for grain, fuel, and fertilizer. News reports have warned that the oil market may be underpricing the risk, with large amounts of regional supply offline and refined product availability still a concern. Trump has downplayed oil concerns, but shipping remains disrupted, and the UAE is looking at pipeline routes to bypass the Strait. If the Strait situation calms down, fuel and fertilizer can correct, but if it escalates again, input markets can firm quickly. There remains lots of uncertainty built into the market, especially on the input side.

 

China Imports:
China-Canada trade tone improved again after China’s foreign minister visited Canada and suggested Canadian exports to China could potentially double by 2030. Earlier this year, China sharply reduced the effective tariff burden on Canadian canola seed and removed tariffs on peas and canola meal. That is friendly for canola, peas, and barley demand, but the market still needs to see steady vessel movement and actual buying before pricing in a full demand recovery.

 

India Pulse Crop Demand:
India’s weaker monsoon concerns keep pulse import demand on the radar. The problem is that demand alone does not automatically lead to higher prices, because tariffs and government policy still control the flow. If crop stress builds and India keeps access open, lentils, peas, and chickpeas should find better support later this summer. I am not in a big rush to price new crop for this reason, as it does feel like something is brewing with India & Canada.

 

Durum Tenders:
There isn’t any fresh news on durum demand & tenders. The durum market still needs confirmed buying, not just weather concerns, before cash bids really turn. Wheat strength can help, but durum needs North Africa, Turkey, or US demand to show up more prominently. IGC also sees the total grains trade down due to lower imports from North Africa and Asia. That makes the outlook shakier than usual, but it doesn’t directly rule out upside in durum prices later on.

 

Wheat Trade:
Wheat remains caught between tighter production ideas and cheap Russian/EU competition. IGC sees global grain output falling and wheat production down, which should be supportive on paper. The problem is that nearby trade is still price sensitive, and buyers have been willing to shift toward cheaper origins when available. This has been shown in the last couple of US export sales & inspections reports. We were so focused on the upcoming supply that we didn’t consider looking at the short-term export hiccups that could come in and ruin a good plan.

 

Oats Exports:
Canadian oat exports appear softer, with March 2026 oat exports down year-over-year according to OEC trade data. Ukraine's oat exports have also been pressured by weaker buying from Turkey and India, according to earlier trade commentary. That keeps oats from having the same demand spark as barley or canola, and is very likely why oats futures have been rangebound for so long.

Fuel & Fertilizer  top

 

Fuel Drops with Crude:
Crude oil has pulled back sharply from the panic highs that followed the Strait of Hormuz concerns, and diesel values have followed lower. A 10–15% decline in wholesale fuel values from the peak is a reasonable estimate, depending on region and timing. The question now is whether the Middle East situation remains calm enough to allow another leg lower. For those needing fuel in the next 1–2 months, I would be considering it on this recent pullback. Buying for harvest and later depends on how ‘sweet’ the current offer is. Feel free to bounce those off me if you like!

 

Peace Deal Effects:
There is no formal long-term peace deal in place between the US and Iran, but markets have become less concerned about an immediate escalation. Fertilizer markets reacted quickly as traders removed some of the risk premium built into nitrogen values. Urea prices have softened first because nitrogen markets react fastest to changing export and production expectations. Phosphate markets remain tighter and have not corrected to the same degree. If tensions remain contained through June and July, further downside in fertilizer values remains possible.

 

NOLA vs Retail:
Many are noticing that NOLA fertilizer prices have dropped while local retail prices remain aggressively high. The biggest reason is that retailers bought inventory at significantly higher replacement costs and are reluctant to sell below their acquisition price. Transportation costs, storage costs, and inventory management also create a lag between wholesale and retail markets. Historically, retail prices often take several weeks or months to fully reflect major wholesale declines. If wholesale weakness continues through June, we should eventually see more aggressive retail competition.

 

China Fertilizer Exports:
China allowing additional urea exports is one of the most important fertilizer stories of the week. There has been confirmation that export quotas had been given by the government, but the details are scarce at the moment. Global nitrogen markets immediately interpret this as a potential increase in available supply. More Chinese exports could help offset some of the supply concerns created by Middle East tensions. This development is one reason nitrogen markets have started to soften.

 

India Fertilizer Tenders:
India announced it would purchase 1.7MMT of urea with the tender opening on June 8th. This is not helpful for the short-term, after a nice setback in global urea values had come about. They remain one of the largest fertilizer importers in the world, and upcoming tenders need to be closely watched. This comes at an awkward time because we typically start seeing ‘reset’ offers for 2027 anytime now.

 

OPEC News:
OPEC+ continues signaling additional production increases despite ongoing geopolitical concerns. The group's objective appears to be maintaining market stability while preventing excessive price spikes. Higher production helps offset some concerns surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. For agriculture, more oil supply generally supports lower fuel and freight costs. This would be one reason for a better harvest fuel price in a few months' time.

 

FTC Investigation:
The FTC formally launched an investigation into fertilizer pricing following complaints from farmers about soaring input costs. Regulators are examining whether market concentration and supply chain practices contributed to unusually high prices. The investigation will take time and is unlikely to create immediate price relief. However, it has become one of the most discussed fertilizer stories of the past week, and it will be interesting to see if anything comes from it.

 

Rising US Production:
The US continues to discuss expanding domestic fertilizer production capacity as part of broader supply security initiatives. New nitrogen investments are being evaluated, but major projects take years to complete. Increased North American production would eventually help stabilize fertilizer pricing for both US and Canada. In the short term, global supply disruptions remain a bigger driver than domestic production growth.

 

Trade & Tariffs  top

 

Canada India Meeting:
Trade discussions between Canada and India continue to improve after several difficult years. An event held in SK last week showcased an improved relationship between them and us. The highlight for me was reading that trade may triple to $70 billion by 2030. Agricultural trade remains a major focus because India is one of the world's fastest-growing food markets. Better relations could improve opportunities for peas, lentils, chickpeas and other exports. Any reduction in trade barriers would be beneficial for our ag markets.

 

India Ascension:
India's rapidly growing population and economy continue to increase food demand. They recently claimed the world's largest population, at 1.46-1.47 billion people, officially surpassing China, with a population of 1.40-1.41 billion. While much attention focuses on US-India trade discussions, Canada also benefits from rising import requirements. The long-term story remains supportive for pulses, edible oils and specialty crops. Demand growth in India remains one of the strongest agricultural themes globally.

 

China Canada Trade:
China's tariff reductions earlier this year improved the outlook for Canadian canola, canola meal and peas. Exporters are now watching whether purchases accelerate enough to tighten supplies. Barley exports remain strong, and China continues to be an important customer. There has also been speculation that China will step up and buy a good amount of yellow peas before the end of the summer. We are watching for fresh export reports to help provide more clues for market direction.

 

China & US Trade:
Trump continues discussing expanded agricultural trade opportunities with China. There have been figures floating around, like China agreeing to buy at least $17 billion in additional US ag products over the next 3 years, but China hasn’t confirmed the numbers. Actual purchase commitments remain the key factor that markets are watching. Traders generally want to see confirmed sales rather than political statements. For now, optimism exists, but hard evidence remains limited. I also saw a headline about the potential for US/China trade re-routing Brazilian exports. I will dig deeper into that topic and provide more insight next week.

 

USMCA:
The review process for USMCA remains a major issue heading into the second half of the year. Agriculture groups continue pushing for stability because Canada, the US and Mexico are deeply integrated markets. Most analysts still expect promising negotiations rather than a dramatic breakdown. Grain, livestock, and fertilizer industries are all watching closely. Canada is looking for improvement in tariffs and has sent its recommendations to renew the USMCA agreement for an additional 16 years. The deadline is coming up fast as the review process must be officially completed by July 1st. We will provide more insight on this as deadlines approach.

 

India Pulse Tariffs:
There continues to be speculation regarding future lentil tariff adjustments, but no major confirmed changes were announced this week. Markets remain extremely sensitive to Indian import policy because even small tariff adjustments can dramatically affect Canadian prices. Pea, lentil and chickpea traders continue monitoring developments daily. Policy remains the biggest wildcard for price direction.

 

CFTC Summary:
Funds have been reducing some of the risk premiums built into wheat and energy markets. Commercial hedgers remain active sellers into rallies, while managed money has become more cautious. Wheat has seen the largest pressure because export demand concerns offset supply worries. Some war premium has clearly been removed from the market over the past week. We are going to look into building a better tracker for fund activity, as it plays a huge role in price direction.

 

Currency & Finance  top

 

Rabobank Food Stats:
Rabobank continues to warn that food inflation risks remain elevated despite easing commodity prices. Higher labour, transportation and processing costs continue flowing through supply chains. Elevated food inflation often supports long-term agricultural investment and production incentives. However, it does not always translate directly into higher grain prices. Inflation remains a buzzword in 2026.

 

BOC Rate Policy:
The next Bank of Canada decision arrives on June 10. Markets currently expect policymakers to remain cautious while monitoring inflation and economic growth. Any indication of future rate cuts could weaken the Canadian dollar. Grain markets will be watching closely because currency moves affect export competitiveness. We will provide an update on this when the meeting notes are released next week. The loonie is currently building some support above 72 cents as the market hit oversold territory last week.

 

FOMC & USD Trend:
The next Federal Reserve meeting arrives a week after on June 17-18. Markets are expecting rates to remain unchanged, with focus shifting toward future guidance. A stronger US dollar generally pressures commodity prices, while a weaker dollar tends to support exports and futures values. Currency traders continue to watch for clues about the timing of eventual rate cuts. The USD is looking a bit toppy as the market is now in overbought territory. Any pullback can help improve US grain & oilseed futures.

 

Livestock  top

 

Cattle Trends:
The recent pullback in live and feeder cattle appears more like a correction than a major trend change. Supplies remain historically tight and demand remains resilient. Futures markets often experience profit-taking after strong rallies, even when the underlying fundamentals remain supportive. We are watching for Aug Live cattle to build support above $2.35/lb, and the same for Aug Feeders above $3.36-3.40/lb.

 

US/Mexico Border Closure:
The closure of US imports of Mexican cattle due to screwworm concerns remains a major market story. USDA confirmed that New World screwworm was found within 30 miles of the US border last week, adding to concerns about the situation. Fewer feeder cattle entering the US means tighter supplies for feedlots. This creates additional competition for domestic animals. The end result remains supportive for cattle prices.

 

Feed Barley Exports:
Canadian feed barley exports remain exceptionally strong. Demand has been supported by livestock sectors and continued international buying interest. China remains one of the key destinations, while other Asian markets have also contributed. Strong export demand continues to support feed barley values.

 

Beef To China:
Trade discussions between Canada and China continue to improve, creating optimism for beef exports. While specific purchase commitments remain limited, improvements in access would be positive for the cattle sector. Producers remain hopeful that stronger trade relationships can support long-term demand growth. China remains one of the world's largest potential beef markets.

 

North American Cattle Supply:
North American cattle inventories remain near multi-decade lows. Herd rebuilding has been slow because producers continue facing high costs and weather challenges. Tight supplies support both live and feeder cattle values. This remains one of the strongest bullish factors in the livestock sector.

 

Consumer Demand:
Consumer demand for beef remains surprisingly resilient despite historically high retail prices. Shoppers remain willing to pay premium prices for beef products. This has helped maintain strong packer margins and cattle values. Demand destruction has been far less severe than many analysts expected.