Canola

Canola futures had a higher monthly close in February, creating a fresh 1-year streak of upside for the month. March stats are a bit hit and miss with only a 60-65% occurrence of a higher end of month pricing. Futures will hit oversold this week and ideally we see the support range of $630-640/T hold. We have the next targets set at $682/T on May and $665/T on November, and I’m still holding back some sales for when the gaps fill at $700-708/T.

 

Palm oil futures are within 3% of the next big support on the May contract. The market will be oversold by the time that level is reached. Getting some bottoming signals at the 4300-4350 range will help the canola futures maintain an uptrend and move back up to the last highs at a minimum. Rapeseed futures would also hit the next support on an additional 3% correction.

 

Minneapolis Wheat (HRS)

Minneapolis wheat futures had a lower monthly close in February, extending the downside streak to three years. This was a bit devastating, as the market lost all the ground and extended the negative streak in the final week of the month. March stats are hit and miss, with a 60% occurrence of a higher end-of-month price. We are back to monitoring the contract low at $5.85/bu as the next level of support to hold. The market is oversold so should bottom and turn back up to re-test $6.40-6.60/bu at a minimum.

 

Kansas Wheat (CPS/HRW)

Kansas wheat futures also extended the lower end of month price streak for a third year. March has a slightly better occurrence than Minneapolis with a 70% rating since 2009. That’s a little more encouraging. The next support is around the contract lows at $5.42/bu and a hold of that level will keep $6.30-6.40/bu in the picture at a minimum.

 

Chicago Wheat (SRW)

We don’t have the monthly stats tracked on Chicago wheat. That is something I will work on creating in March. I would assume it’s a very similar trend as the Minneapolis & Kansas contracts. The next support is $5.37/bu and I think a recovery to $6.10-6.20/bu is doable.

 

We just need to see these contract low supports hold on all 3 exchanges to shorten up the timeframe for when the recovery will happen. For example,e if the market bottom in the next 10 days, I could see the recovery happening in time for April pricing deadlines on May basis contracts.

 

Soybeans

Soybean futures extended the streak of lower end of month pricing to 3 years in February. March stats are a bit more promising with a 60-80% occurrence of higher end of month pricing. Futures will be looking for a support at $10/bu. If that breaks it would be down to the contract lows at $9.55/bu next. The market hit $9.55/bu in December and rallied back to near $11/bu in January. So while it feels like a massive drop, the recovery can be just as big once the next bottom is confirmed. The market is in oversold territory again, so that is slightly encouraging.

 

Soybean oil has been on a big sell-off over the past two weeks. The market is trading right at the next support on the May contract. A break of 43 cents would push the market back to 40 cents. The market will be heavily oversold by then so there is a growing chance to see a bottom somewhere within the next 3 cents. A turnaround in soybean oil would be very helpful for canola.

 

Corn

Corn futures are in a heavy sell-off right now, down 11% from the Feb high. Corn had a lower end of month price in February for a third straight year. The March stats are promising though. There has been an 80-100% chance of higher end of month pricing for March over the last 5-years. $4.50/bu is the next line to hold and we are monitoring price activity at that level for any signs of bottoming. The market is incredibly oversold as well.

 

Oats

Oats futures are thin and fairing better than the other futures exchanges. The May contract had a nice run in the back half of February, creating a new 1-year streak of higher end of month pricing. There is a 60-80% occurrence of that happening again in March. The market should continue to hold the $3.40/bu support, then recover back up to the triangle resistance area at $3.70-3.75/bu. The triangle is formed when you draw the downtrend lines & horizontal lines along the previous highs for this market.

 

Yellow Peas

Yellow peas saw a little life last week with high-end area pricing moving back to around $11.40/bu and low-end area prices are fighting to get above $10.25/bu. The seasonal trend for peas is a bit choppy until Apr/May when we see some gain potential. It doesn’t happen every year but the monthly stats are in the 70-80% range over the past 5 years. New crop bids are still stuck around the $10.00-10.25/bu range. We are waiting for a minimum of $10.50/bu before making the first recommendation.

 

Green Peas

Green peas are steady with many areas hitting $17.00-17.50/bu on 2024 crop. The bids for 2025 crop are better than other peas with bids showing up for $14.00/bu or better. Those are all good numbers for old crop sales & a starting point on some new crop. The seasonals on greens is similar but stronger than yellow peas. The highest probability for upside is March & May with 100% chance over the last 5 years. We will see if those streaks continue in 2025!

 

Chickpeas

The higher chickpea bids have disappeared again. There wasn’t enough offerings at .40/lb to make the official recommendation. So the waiting game continues. If you can get your hands on some .40/lb I would be taking it on at least some of what’s left to sell for 2024 crop. Bids for 2025 crop are still quiet in the a .31-.32/lb range. The seasonal trend shows some chance for spikes in March & May with some decent monthly stats to accompany that. April has a 100% occurrence of higher end of month pricing since 2020 on the line. We’ll see if that trend can be extended for a 6th year!

 

Red Lentils

Red lentils had a little surge two weeks ago, in some areas. SE-SK is showing prices at .35/lb, but I’m not able to confirm whether that price is widespread. If we could confirm that price was available in all lentil regions we would likely make a recommendation. If you are seeing that price in SK-10,11,12,13 please let us know! Red lentils typically find lows in Feb-Mar and then rally again into May. There is also a 100% occurrence of higher end of month pricing for April over the last 5 years. It would be great to see that strong stat repeat for a sixth year! We aren’t making recommendations on new crop yet. Before making the first sale, I would like to see a .02-.03/lb gain from the current .30-.31/lb range.

 

Laird Lentils

Laird lentils are hanging around the .57-.58/lb range for 2024 crop still. We briefly saw 2025 prices hit .50/lb, but they have since backed off to .46-.48/lb. The seasonal trend shows sideways to higher pricing in Mar-May with the best chance for a higher end of month price in Mar-Apr. There’s a 70-80% occurrence of that happening in those months over the last 10-years. I am aiming for .60-.62/lb and maybe high-end .65/lb if the trend works out perfect for 2024 crop. And I would like to get started on new crop in the .50/lb range.

 

Eston Lentils

Small greens are in a similar pattern. Old crop pricing is holding at .52-.53/lb and we would like to see .55-.56/lb again for the next sale. New crop is sideways at .425/lb. I am waiting for a .02-.03/lb increase to get started on new crop. April has decent monthly stats with a 70-80% occurrence of higher end of month pricing going back to 2020.

 

Durum

Durum prices are holding steady. 2024 crop prices are in the $9.25-9.60/bu range. We are weighing the risk-reward of holding for $10/bu versus cleaning up the last 25% now. We will keep you posted on that. New crop prices are in the $8.75-9.00/bu range and need to strengthen another .25/bu before I make the first recommendation. Prices tend to be more sideways with the odd spike in March-April. Durum is in an interesting spot right now because there is a growing demand with crop issues in Russia & France while there is uncertainty with US trade and an ample supply to keep price upside limited.

 

Feed Barley

Feed barley prices are back to the $6.20-6.50/bu range at the high end in Southern AB. We are holding a small amount (15%) back for any increase into May-July. Seasonally, it’s generally a sideways market after March with the odd spike in May & July. This year might be different if the US corn market gets hit with Canadian tariffs in retaliation to Trump’s potential tariffs against Canada. We continue to monitor that situation.

 

Feed Wheat

Feed wheat prices are steady. Many feed buyers are offering $8.00-8.30/bu for March movement. You can use this increase for cash and movement, up to at least 70% sold. April-May is typically a seasonal window for sales on feed wheat. New crop values are creeping higher as well. We would like to see at least $7.00-7.25/bu as a starting point for early harvest movement and $8/bu or better for year-end movement.

 

Malt Barley

Malt prices remain flat with nothing new to report. We have heard a few offers at $6.00/bu which I’m not overly thrilled about. I am still trying to decide where the line in the sand should be for floor pricing on malt. If we have to take $6/bu on a portion to get the foot in the door, then that might ultimately be our best strategy to start out. I will keep you posted on this decision!

 

Canary Seed

Canary seed prices remain flat as well. Most areas are in the .30-.31/lb range right now. Some years we get some strength into May-June so we will keep an eye on that. 2025 pricing is around .28-.30/lb out the gates. You need to be at a minimum $.30/lb to break even on a 1550lb/ac yield. We aren’t making any recommendations at this time.

 

Flax

Flax prices were creeping up last week. I’m seeing bids as high as $18.00-18.60/bu in some areas. Anytime some demand shows up the market seems to perk up a bit. We are weighing the risk/reward of waiting for $20/bu versus selling more now. I will keep you posted on that decision. Apr-May is typically the next seasonal timing for some sales. We are just starting to hear of some new crop pricing in the $16-17/bu range. Bids aren’t consistent enough across the Prairies to make a recommendation just yet. At $17/bu I would sell 10-15%. You need to be at a minimum $15.79/bu to break even on a 28bu/ac yield.

 

Yellow & Brown Mustard

Mustard prices remain quiet leading up to the latest tariff deadlines. Yellow mustard prices are around .44/lb, and brown prices are around .33/lb for a 6th straight week. These are still okay prices for some sales. There is some added uncertainty and risk because of US trade & tariff possibilities. That is something we continue to weigh the risk/reward on. We still haven’t heard any 2025 pricing yet.

 

Rye

The Rye market is still quiet as buyers seem cautious because of US trade uncertainty. The common range is $5.25-6.00/bu for spot. There needs to be some shock to the S&D or further strength in wheat & corn to help the rye market move away from the current ranges. Apr-June is a seasonal window for rye. We have to do some further assessment on new crop before we make any official recommendations. A break-even on a 75bu/ac yield is around $7/bu for 2025 crop. A 97bu/ac yield has a break-even of $5.41/bu. I’m not sure if we should be relying on the high yield to start new crop at the current low values. There are some things I need to consider further before making the recommendation decision.

 

Faba Beans

The Faba market is still quiet and flat at $8/bu. April can often be good timing for some life in the faba market. If something changes on the S&D, we will let you know. We haven’t heard any 2025 pricing yet. You need to be at least $8.36/bu to break even on a 58bu/ac yield.