All Regions / What are the next resistance targets for November canola futures if we have Nov basis and what is the plan for your next recommendation?

 

The next resistance was right where the market is sitting at $800-805/T. Staying above this area over the next week or two is the next piece of the puzzle to keep further upside on the table. If that happens, the next target is on the weekly chart at $850-855/T. For November basis, I would consider pricing a portion at current levels to minimize risk in the event of a correction to $750/T. Then I would target the rest of the contract around the $850/T mark.

 

Our next 10% recommendation will likely happen sooner than later since we don't want to run into harvest pressure. I have just been waiting for a reversal on the charts, or a break of the trendline support, to help confirm the timing. It would be nice to get a bit more done to cover off some movement and cash for September-November. Then, if all works out right we will aim for $850/T or higher for some bigger sales after harvest.

 

All Regions / Don't you see some pressure coming with all the big canola crops in western Canada?

 

There are definitely lots of areas out there looking at big canola crops. In my drive through MB & SK to get to Ag In Motion I saw lots of good looking fields. This is just my road view so it's hard to say what bushels are out there. There is also a big area that has been hit by flooding, excess rains, and hail but I don't know the extent of that damage yet. I can see futures sliding back to $700-750/T during harvest pressure as off combine deliveries happen. I don't see prices going lower than that.

 

I also keep thinking about how we had such a 'big crop' last year, yet crushers can't keep up with the demand, and look where the market is today. If prices got here now, they can get here again later. I don't want to rush to price everything but we can't go wrong with 30-40% at this stage if you are comfortable forward pricing that much. If you don't like having that much risk tied into pre-harvest sales, it just means waiting until later when futures return to $800-850/T. Or maybe we see even higher than that if the demand continues to increase and production loss is more than it currently appears to be.

 

All Regions / What do you think the next sell point is for wheat prices on Minneapolis & Kansas futures?

 

Minneapolis futures got above $7/bu on the September this week and look to be headed up to challenge the contract highs around $7.50/bu. $9/bu or better is the ideal goal and I wouldn't rule out a further .50/bu or more upside on the futures with the various wheat crop issues in NA, EU, Australia, and Black Sea regions. I will likely make another 10% recommendation soon for the same reasons mentioned in the first two canola questions. I am just waiting to see if we can get that extra .30-.50/bu first, or will call it on a chart reversal.

 

Kansas futures had reversal on Monday but that was negated by the strength seen on Tuesday. We decided to split the rec into two since we were behind on CPS, HRW, and SRW sales compared to HRS. Normally we would be more like 30-40% sold at this time of year, but the rally is happening later than usual. It's going to be the same timing as Minneapolis wheat for the next 10% on these other wheat types.

 

All Regions / What is the plan with yellow & green pea sales. Do we see any upside or is it just a flat market now?

 

Pea supplies are still on the higher end in Canada and the demand has been flatter than usual. We potentially have US tariffs to deal with, China banned pea starch but not whole peas, and there is some uncertainty about how bad El Nino is actually affecting India. All things considered, I still believe the fundamentals are setting up for a good seasonal recovery after harvest. I wouldn't be selling yellow peas for less than $8/bu or green peas for less than $9.50/bu. I see a good .50/bu or better recovery in the market, or hitting the ideal range of $8.50-9/bu on yellow peas and $10.00-10.50/bu on green peas. Hold if you can.

 

SK-12 / I am hearing about some drowned out lentils and poor yield & quality coming, yet the market isn't budging. What do you think?

 

Lentil supplies were also quite high after last year's massive crop. Couple that with some slower than typical demand and you get a flat market. I do see this changing though based on the idea that we are going to produce a shorter crop, and an increasing chance for more imports by India & other Middle East regions. I am anticipating a .03-.04/lb recovery into year-end and possibly double that if S&D trends go the way they are setting up to. This is another crop I woudn't be giving away if you can manage bin space and cash in other ways. It wasn't long ago that we had much higher prices, and lentils like to move big when the fundamentals turn bullish.

 

SK-7 / There are some massive durum crops coming again this year. Do you still think we will see $8.50-9.00/bu?

 

I am not as excited about the durum as I am with other markets, but there is still room for $8/bu or better based on the current S&D trends. We had a massive crop last year and still managed to get $8/bu or better, and that can happen again this year. Wheat prices are on the rise much better than last year. That can definitely help the market. There are issues in EU, Black Sea, and Africa that can help improve our demand. If Russian wheat gets more expensive they may turn back to our market. $9/bu might be a stretch unless you get one of those flash offers from companies along the border dealing with the US. But I don't think $8.50/bu is out of the question.

 

All Regions / Should we be buying fertilizer still?

 

I'm glad we suggested at least half of Nitrogen purchases when we did in June, but I'm starting to wonder if we should have just said buy all. There are lots of fundamentals pushing prices up. Renewed war premiums, ongoing shipping concerns, production delays, strong global demand, export restrictions, and higher grain prices. Those all suggest higher fertilizer values.

 

If your urea price is still below $800/T I would likely buy. If it's higher than that I might just wait it out for the other seasonal windows in Dec or Feb. I guess in general for all N products if it's still close to your 2025 purchase price and works with the budget, I would likely continue buying. Phosphate prices remain at all time highs and I would rather wait for 3-6 months to buy for the same then to tie up the cash now. Maybe we get a lucky $100-200/T correction. It's still a high price but better than no correction I suppose.

 

AB-16 / Our local grain company is encouraging a $9.25/bu target on HRS and telling us to reward the market. What do you think?

 

I would set a $9.50/bu target to see what they say. Grain companies seem to be really urging sales right now. That can sometimes mean the market is going to keep moving up. If they want it for $9.25/bu maybe they'll reach for the extra quarter and pick an even higher target. Try it for 5-10% for a week.

 

SK-12 / What are your thoughts on contracting new crop chickpeas?

 

I would be waiting for .28-.29/lb as the minimum starting point for chickpeas and I'm not ruling out further upside to .32-.36/lb if all works out. We are waiting for some better indication about Indian demand and Australia crop size before jumping in heavy at .28/lb. A higher supply in Canada has been weighing on the market but we have seen that lower range a few times now so it shouldn't be out of reach for you.

 

MB-1,2,3 / Lots of $15/bu soybean specials showing up this week. What do you think?

The soybean futures have some upside potential still but it's pretty hard to pass up $15/bu for off combine movement. I would be making a small sale on that for sure. We have recommended up to 30-40% sold so far with no plans to make more recs until the crop is in the bin. If you have none sold I wouldn't necessarily do a 40% shot at that, but I would grab 15-20%. The next target on soy futures is another .30-.50/bu higher. So could also toss a $15.50/bu target for another 10-15%.

 

All Regions / Are we worried about Trump adding tariffs on Canadian goods this week?

 

No I'm not worried about Trump just yet. The new tariffs announced this week do not specifically target Canadian grain & oilseeds exports. The measures are aimed at a defined list of manufactured and consumer goods, while some commodities such as energy and potash are exempt. The impact is more indirect if anything. Futures will continue to trade mainly on weather, yields, global demand, and war effects. Basis could weaken slightly if the trade dispute hurts cross-border logistics, but I wouldn't expect a major move from this announcement alone. Longer term if the trade war expands to agriculture during USMCA negotiations, then grain markets could become involved. Agriculture is expected to be part of those discussions. I'd call it neutral for now and just another factor to keep an eye on for any surprises.