AB-19 / We have a little spring wheat to move, and I want to max out on the price. What is the risk/reward if prices are currently $8.50-8.60/bu picked up on our farm, which we sold a little at this week as well?
 
Futures are overbought again after the run over the past couple of weeks. But the real signal is whether July futures can stay above $7.02/bu. If you are wanting to max out on the price for your last sale you can wait for the signal. Your downside risk is .30-.50/bu and your upside potential is .50/bu or greater, depending on how crops progress in NA & other regions over the next 1-2 months. So maybe you can trigger a $9.25/bu+ if all works out perfect, or you have to sell for $8.25/bu if the plan falls apart. Having those additional sales at $8.50-8.60/bu give you some cushion.
 
MB-4 / I sold a good chunk of canola for $16/bu this week and am wondering if you think I'll get $16.50/bu for the rest of it?
 
I would like to see if new contract highs can be made on the July contract first. Getting above $769.60/T is key to forecasting a move to $800/T or higher. That would be the move to trigger your next target. We have one more recommendation to make on 2025 crop canola, so keep an eye out for that as well!
 
All Regions / Now that November canola broke above $747/T, what's the next plan for sales?
 
If November futures can stay above ~$750/T into next week, it will be a good sign for further upside. I am now watching for a move to $800/T or any big reversals before adding more sales. We will likely have one more recommendation on 2026 crop before harvest, so keep an eye out for that as well.
 
MB-5 / I sold some wheat for $8.65/bu this week and have 30% to go. Should I target $9/bu for the next sale?
 
It's a good move to be selling wheat on this strength if you are undersold. Nice to see prices hitting over $8.50/bu in your area. If July futures slip below $7.02/bu into the end of the week, that would likely be a sell signal for you to move another 15%. If prices can hold above $7.02/bu it keeps the chance to see another .50/bu upside on futures. That would get you in range to hit a $9/bu target. There were some $9/bu targets triggering in AB this week, but of course logistics make it a bit more challenging for your region.
 
All Regions / I'm looking back at some of the earlier canola I had contracted and kicking myself with the prices moving up now. What are your thoughts?
 
Yes, canola has been on a tear this week following oil up in reaction to the UAE pulling out of OPEC and ongoing Strait issues. Near contract highs on July, and new contract highs on November. Maybe shouldn't have rushed the additional sales at $730/T I suppose, but difficult to pass that up when the market had already rallied $100/T. I like to think back to December when prices were under $600/T. We could have easily panic sold back then. That reminds me that we are still in good shape compared to the average.
 
For the last sale of old crop, the next step is getting futures past $769.60/T to make a new contract high. That would open the door to $800/T+. We'll see how it goes over the next few days. Normally, by mid-May we like to finish up old crop based on seasonal trends, but the added war/oil volatility may change that window this year. We are also ready to act on any big panic button chart reversals or changes to war, re-opening of Strait, something like that to change the trend.
 
MB-5 / They keep cranking the wheat basis wider as futures rally. It's making it difficult to see the full upside potential on the market. What do you think about doing futures first in this situation?
 
Futures first is a strategy to consider, but I'm not expecting it to improve much until after harvest. So, if you are looking for off-combine movement, you will likely have to consider net pricing some for $8/bu or better, depending on the region you are in. If you can defer delivery into Dec-Feb I would be more interested in taking futures first contracts on the March 2027, then waiting for basis to narrow (improve) before the Feb deadline. Grab 10% at $7.50/bu and target 10% at $8/bu on March futures only. Then maybe see basis improve closer to the +$1.50/bu mark later on. Keep in mind this is a question from a lower priced area. If you wanted specific numbers you could text me as well to chat out a strategy.
 
Side Note: Some areas are getting better wheat demand and may be able to negotiate basis only for September delivery off December futures. Anything +$1.40/bu or better is an okay option for some harvest movement. Anything under +$1.20/bu I would be passing on for sure.
 
SK-9 / Can we expect a good price bump for brown flax? I saw on May 1st there's some sort of tariff expiring for flax going to the EU? Does that make flax shipments to the EU more attractive? I am being offered $17.75/bu picked up at Nipawin today, and yesterday was $17.25/bu. I have a gut feeling it'll be more soon, and they are just securing the product before this tariff comes off?
 
April & May are often seasonal windows for upside, and we see more exports as St Lawrence opens up again. Just happens to align with the removal of the big trade barrier. There wasn't a tariff, it was a trade barrier that forced higher testing and certification to make sure shipments were Triffid-free. Removing the barrier should lower export costs, some of which will be reflected in the price.
 
25% of flax exports are going to the EU right now, but I expect that number will rise in crop years to come, with the removal of the hoops traders had to jump through. The highest price I have heard lately is $18.25/bu. I would aim for that on a portion, and we can adjust on the fly if there are some big moves. Flax moves big when it has reason to. I've seen $6/bu jumps in a week before. I'm not saying that will happen, but it's definitely something to keep an eye on.
 
SK-12 / Is there anything changing on LGL? It seems like there is some optimism and upside on other crops. What do you think?
 
I am holding off final old crop & next new crop lentil sales right now. There is some potential for them to join the rally before the end of Summer. There is still a big supply pressure, so the upside might be limited to a couple cents. But we'll see how things shape up for new crop. There can be a bigger run on them later in the year if all works out with El Niño threats creeping in other regions. Crop loss in India, Australia, and Pakistan/Bangladesh could prompt some bigger exports for Canada, to help trim down the stocks. That's the type of information that can get lentils moving more than just .02-.03/lb.
 
SK-10 / I have an offer to sell some old crop chickpeas for .27/lb. This was my first year growing them, so a little unsure on the seasonal timing. What's your thoughts?
 
Seasonal strength usually starts in April and carries into May. Then we see a period of sideways to lower until harvest, then up again into year end. This can fluctuate depending on whether S&D issues arise. I was thinking .28/lb for a sale with the plan to finish up old crop by June. We will have a few recommendations go out as we are quite undersold on chickpeas for this time of year.
 
SK-10 / The maltster wasn't getting any interest at $5.80/b, and now they are offering $6/bu with an AOG. What do you think of that price?
 
I'm okay with $6/bu for the first 20% of production. Most years we need to see malt/feed spread potential to get an idea of how much upside there might be in the malt market later on. There seems to be some momentum building in the grains & feed market right now, which can spill over to malt. I think the best plan is to secure some harvest movement at $6/bu, then watch for signs that prices can jump to $6.50/bu or higher after harvest.
 
SK-11 / Where do you see green pea prices going for new crop? I realize China will make a difference if they start importing. But what else can help this market?
 
Green peas are more dependent on imports by the US, India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh than on imports by China. China is usually buying more yellow peas. That can have some spillover support, but the more direct hit is when demand spikes in those other regions I mentioned. Right now, it's all about crop conditions. As it stands we can't be reaching for more than maybe a .50/bu increase on green peas. That would put high end areas around $10.50/bu and low end regions around $10/bu. We may have to settle for the $10/bu price on a small amount of new crop, just for harvest cash and space, if there aren't any bullish S&D developments soon.