All Regions / Should we be selling canola or waiting? I am wondering about old & new crop. What do you think?

 

The target range for March futures is $650-654/T if you are looking to set some targets. Our recommendation last week went out around $648/T, so anywhere in this current range is an okay spot for a 10-15% sale of old crop. The latest trade developments have me feeling a bit better about the canola S&D situation, so I am willing to hold 30-40% back for a possible shot at $670-685/T by April-May time frame. Same story on new crop. Only selling small amounts, ideally at $14/bu or better, and waiting for bigger sales on a run to $670-685/T on November futures. We will have some more recs go out as well, so keep an eye out for those.

 

SK-11 / What do you think about taking a -$30/T basis for July canola at the crusher?

 

If they are starting to fill up I think I would take some if you are wanting to haul in June. I don't see basis narrowing up much at the crusher as there is lots of canola to move through yet, and it seems like they are having no trouble sourcing it right now. That basis should give you a shot to hit $14.50-14.85/bu or better with a floor price of $14.30/bu if you lock in a bit now on this run.

 

All Regions / I have a July canola basis. What targets should I be using?

 

The next two targets are $664/T and $682/T on July futures. After that, it's back to over $700/T. But let's take it one step at a time and target a bit on both those levels first.

 

All Regions / I have Mar HRS wheat basis with a deadline coming up on Feb 15th. What should we be doing with those?

 

Wheat futures are finally starting to cooperate a bit here, up double digits on Thursday. I would continue targeting the top of the sideways range at $5.90/bu for a portion, and leave some unpriced to see if futures can finally break through that resistance to extend the uptrend in time for a last stretch run leading up to deadlines. I will also be making a recommendation on this bounce in the market when there are some sell signals showing up.

 

All Regions / I want to make some bigger sales on wheat here sooner than later. What should I be considering?

 

You can target a .20-.30/bu bump in cash prices for some sales, you can consider basis contracts if you are in an area that is getting +$1.50/bu or better offers right now. Then we will see if futures can finally break out of the sideways range and run that extra .40-.60/bu that we have been talking about for months now.

 

All Regions / Can you email me the profitability and break-even spreadsheet so I can download it to my computer?

 

Yes I will email you a copy but you can also access any our links on your computer by typing them into your URL bar on your browser. Just type gsminfo.ca/croprank2250 to access the spreadsheet download button for example. Or you can hit up the info centre any time too by typing in gsminfo.ca/infocenter2250.

 

SK-8 / I was offered $5.30/bu picked up for the rest of my barley. That would be equivalent to $5.50/bu delivered locally. Should I get rid of the rest?

 

I would be making some more sales on this current run in the barley market. We are getting a nice little bounce here as the cold weather cranks up. That is common for Jan-Feb. I won't go to 100% sold just yet because I want to see how strong the export market gets in the next couple of months. There might be room to gain .30-.50/bu yet if all works out right, and if we get a little help from corn. I would say 70-80% sold is a good level for now.

 

SK-12 / Should we moving the rest of our chickpeas on a .265/lb offer?

 

I would give the market some time if you have the space & cash is covered. Use this offer for some short-term sales if needed, otherwise wait for a shot at .28-.30/lb come spring/summer. Chickpeas will be more responsive to some trade change with India than they will by China removing tariffs. But any positive trade changes are considered good for all pulse markets generally. High stocks in Canada limit the upside to .02-.03/lb.

 

SK-9 / We are seeing some rise in oats prices at the elevator all of a sudden. They were $2.85/bu last week and now are offering us $3.25/bu. What do you think?

 

$3.25/bu isn't great on the spreadsheet, but there's limited upside potential on oats right now because of the S&D situation and lower corn values. A .40/bu bump in your area is a good spot to make some sales. Keep in mind this is NE SK where logistics & basis are much higher.

 

Side Note: Some folks in SK-8 were seeing a similar upside with offers of $3.40-3.50/bu triggering, and the high end across the Prairies remains around $4/bu.

 

AB-21 / Are you suggesting to be 60% sold on old crop green peas, and are the cattle prices quoted in hundredweight (cwt)?

 

Yes we are recommending a 15% sale on green peas this week with most areas able to get over $10/bu and the high end in some of AB is around $11/bu. That puts us at 55% sold on the sales tracker. The cattle futures texts are listed in USD per cwt. For reference, $234 would be the same as $2.34/lb or around $3.25/lb CAD. Keep in mind that this is futures prices you are seeing on the @9AM and CLOSING texts every day.

 

SK-11,12,13 / Who is offering .24/lb on SRL and should I be selling at that?

 

Yes we would recommend a 15% sale on SRL at .24/lb because that has been our short-term target range for the past couple of months. I saw a few Bunge locations in SK & AB, and I think AGT Regina offering .24/lb this week.

 

AB-19 / What do you think about yellow peas for $8.25/bu?

 

That is a good .75/bu higher than prices were a month ago. A nice little recovery started, then China lifted tariffs, and that helped push the market further. I don't necessarily think the top is in, but I do like rewarding ourselves for being patient. Make a 15% sale, then we will see if prices continue the trend up.

 

MB-3 / I'm locking in some edible bean contracts in USD so am a bit exposed on the currency fluctuations between now & harvest. I can handle a drop to 1.30CAD/USD and still make it work. What do you think?

 

The interest rate math still favours the USD right now. For rates to go less than 1.30 you would likely need more US Fed rate cuts than BOC cuts in the coming months. Right now the market is anticipating rates easing at about the same pace. On top of that the CAD would need a big run on oil or canola to see any significant increase in the loonie's value. I think you need a lot of things lining up in the next 6 months to make a big shift in the rates. 1.33-1.34 seems like a solid support for the market if there were some setback.

 

All Regions / I'm seeing fertilizer prices jump this week. What's the reason for that?

 

We are seeing more news about China exports being shut down until summer, India tendering for more urea soon, some geopolitical tension continues to leave a premium in the market, and some general gains in ingredient pricing (oil, gas, currency). It's typical to see prices sideways to higher starting anytime between Dec & Feb, then into Spring. We saw a nice pullback in Nov-Dec this year and recommended to pick up fertilizer, and waiting no longer than end of Feb to have your 2026 needs purchased.