All Regions / My local elevator rep says the soybean & canola outlook is only going to trend lower because China & Japan are buying in Australia, and because a big SA crop is coming this year. What do you think of this?

 

I understand the concern. Australia is taking some export business away from Canada, and a large South American soybean crop could put pressure on prices if it makes it through the season without issues.  I’m still leaning bullish longer term, though, especially with canola. Canadian canola crush continues expanding, vegetable oil demand has room to grow, and biofuel demand remains a major factor.

 

Plus, stocks are tighter than last year, and we saw a nice jump on futures last crop year, with higher stocks. I think we’re seeing a temporary setback here rather than the end of the rally, and we just need to be patient. I’m not ignoring the bearish news, but I’m not ready to call the uptrend over. I am more confident in canola than soybeans, strictly because of our massive crush demand.

 

SK-7 / I was worried about getting the crop off with all the poor harvest weather, so I haven't made any canola or soybean sales yet. Just wondering if I should sell some or set targets for movement? What do you think is a good strategy?

 

Now that markets are pulling back, I want to wait for a signal from the futures holding or breaking support. Referencing January futures now as spot. If canola can hold the $777-790/T level, there is a good chance prices will recover to $820/T+ in the next 1-2 months. If $777/T doesn't hold, it will just mean a longer wait, unfortunately.

 

If January soybeans can hold $12.50/bu, there's a good chance to see $13/bu+ again. I am a little more worried about soy with the harvest pressure, and canola seems to have a solid S&D outlook to help keep the floor supported. I would likely sell soy & hold canola if you need any quick movement. I'm still not ruling out $850-900/T long-term on canola futures.

 

All Regions / When will the bleeding stop on these wheat markets and do you think there will be a run back up like we just had?

 

Timing is always the challenge with markets, especially on wheat because when the funds hit the sell button it seems to last longer than you'd expect. That said I do think there is a case to be made for wheat prices to climb again after this sell-off ends. We still have a tighter supply, export issues, and an El Nino forecast that can hurt wheat crop in some areas yet. The funds will spot a good buying opportunity and that will kickstart the next rally. The next support range is $6.24-6.52/bu on Minneapolis wheat, and ideally the market holds the high end of the range because it would mean the turnaround will happen sooner.

 

Kansas wheat has a support upcoming at $6.78/bu and if that breaks it would mean down to $6.26/bu potentially. Chicago wheat is just slipping below the $6.44/bu support at mid-week and that could mean down to $6/bu. So basically if prices don't turn around this week or next, we might have to ride out another .40-.50/bu downside. That would be followed by a recovery of at least 50% of this slide, up to the moving average, or if all lines up an outright re-test of the September highs. I would use basis for movement needs, other higher valued crops for cash flow, and wait for the futures to recover.

 

SK-10 / What do you think about buying phosphate at $1450/T and urea for $890/T? My retailer is raising the price to $1500/T later this week.

 

I still lean toward buying some phosphate and urea. The Strait of Hormuz is still a legitimate concern. Even if shipping returns to normal, it could take months for fertilizer production, freight, inventories and retail prices to recover. Sulfur shortages as a result of the conflict in Iran are a major issue, and I don't see that being resolved in time for spring. Phosphate worries me more because Chinese exports remain restricted and there is no guarantee they'll return by Feb-Mar.

 

Some reports claim that Chinese phosphate exports will recover only partially in 2027. My recommendation is to cover at least half or more at current values, and we will make another recommendation on any pullback into Dec-Feb for those trying to time out some downside, hoping for something to change with the fundamentals. In general, there is a better chance for Nitrogen to drop before Phosphate does.

 

MB-3 / Are we going to see $6/bu picked up for corn again in Jan/Feb do you think?

 

My short-term concern is that a bigger than expected corn production out of the US along with the harvest pressure might keep prices flat to lower for the next month or two. But come Jan/Feb I see a different market potential.

 

Farmer selling typically slows after harvest, winter logistics can tighten up, and local feed demand can help strength corn values domestically. I do see corn futures returning to the $5.00-5.50/bu range and potentially $6/bu down the road. And I see cash prices in MB hitting $6/bu or better again as well.

 

AB-19 / How does a $10/bu yellow pea price compare to the past few years, and should I be selling some?

 

$10/bu is a top 1/3 price based on the last 2 years of data. It's also up $1/bu from a month ago and about +15% from the 2025 crop year average. If you go back 3-5 years the value drops off, but overall not a bad spot. I would be making some sales to cover off cash & movement. We recommended a 20% shot last week in the same range that prices are trading this week.

 

AB-20 / What do you think about $7/bu malt barley for price comparisons and selling? They are also paying trucking so the price works out to more like $7.20/bu.

 

At $7.20/bu net you are in the top 5% over the last 3 years, up .70/bu since September, and $1.20/bu better than the 2025 average. Malt hasn't had a lot of room for upside in recent years because there has been good quality and demand has been more flat. This year we still have a tempered demand but lots of crop issues downgrading the crop to feed. So I'm not in a big rush on locking in just yet if you have top quality. I would maybe grab 15-20% for $7/bu, but I know many malt companies want all or nothing on the deal. If that's the case I would hold it for a bit longer. November has been the best month for higher prices going back to 2015. I rely more on the seasonal trend when the supply outlook is bullish.