All Regions / What's the game plan on canola futures?

 

Use the current price range to cover short-term sales for cash & movement off the combine, then wait to make bigger sales when futures hit closer to $900/T. I'm not ruling out more than that, but one step at a time, let's see futures hit the next resistance at $900/T then decide on the plan from there. I am also watching for November 2027 futures to hit $800-850/T before deciding on the first small sale on next year's crop.

 

All Regions / What are some things that could help turn fertilizer down or is it even possible at this point?

 

Fertilizer has been very quiet right now. I think retailers are scared to say what their pricing is going to be. I don't see many ways out of this higher range. All we have on the horizon is the Strait of Hormuz re-opening, China exporting more product, or new production coming out of Africa/other regions. There's also negatives with Brazil buying more N ahead of soy planting, production costs rising with shipping constraints & oil rising, and just a general slowdown in production overall. I don't see much chance for any significant pullbacks in N or P. Our best chance is to maybe see a small reset in Dec-Feb. Unless something changes on those big 3 factors I mentioned at the start of the answer.

 

All Regions / What are the pre-report expectations for USDA on Friday?

 

I expect a cut in corn production more in line with Pro Farmer estimates. A 5-7bpa cut would be considered bullish for the market. I see the soybean production sticking around where it was last forecast. Any big reduction or increase could spook the market. Wheat production is already known to be down at least 20%. I think it's more valuable to know what they do about Black Sea exports. Overall, I don't anticipate any major bearish reactions. We should be able to get by this report with more helpful moves than bad moves.

 

All Regions / Should we believe anything that Stats Canada said in their stocks report?

 

The stocks estimates were based on data that was collected in July and based on the idea that we grew a monster production in 2025. That is why the numbers were so high & negative looking. Canola is way over-estimated if you look at the basis that crushers are offering for spot movement. There is no way there is 2MMT of canola on hand. The pulse numbers are likely more accurate than other crops. It's important to remember that the effect is more negative for green peas & green lentils than it is for yellow peas & red lentils. That is because of the variety splits that they don't show in this report.

 

Lower barley stocks make sense to me when you look at the record pace of exports last season. The durum stocks are likely pretty accurate as well, but the recent downgraded crops still in the field should prop up top quality durum prices here sooner than later at least a little bit. Then the wheat, soybeans, and corn numbers aren't a huge factor for me with so many regions experiencing crop issues and various other factors affecting exports & demand in general. This is a long winded answer to say that I believe some of what they say, but there are definitely some flaws in the way they report info.

 

SK-10 / What do you think about $6.15/bu for malt barley? I was lucky and got all of it off to grade malt with low protein. But I'm hearing lots of areas with malt downgraded to feed. Do you think that will be reflected in prices soon?

 

I am not in a rush to lock in malt for $6.15/bu because I think we will see a minimum $6.50/bu offered and possibly higher. If there is enough demand for malt, the feed spread is wider, and if corn futures can have a bullish run it should help push malt prices up in Oct-Dec. I would only sell small amounts for cash flow on that offer if I had no other options.

 

SK-12 / We are sitting on last year's SGL lentil crop and being offered .175/lb for them. I could really use the cash flow. Do you see any upside to hold?

 

That offer is about the best I have heard in the past couple of months. The upside is limited to .02-.03/lb until there are some significant demand changes in India with El Nino potentially increasing their import demand. But that could take months due to big SGL carryover in Canada. I would take the cash and wait on other pulses to balance it out.

 

AB-16 / What is a comparable FOB price for September delivery as $8.30/bu for January 2027 delivery on SWW?

 

Using the standard .045-.075/bu per month storage and 7-11% on opportunity cost, you would need around $7.80/bu to be the same as $8.30/bu in 4 months. I would give the Chicago wheat market some time to improve toward the contract highs or possibly higher before locking more in.

 

SK-7,10 / What is the plan for #2 and lower grade HRSW and poor grading durum? There is a big area that is wet and we have just started into our wheat harvest.

 

I anticipate the premium for #1 HRS will widen for sure. Good milling wheat will be harder to come by this year. Even a #2 I wouldn't rush to sell as it can become a good option for blending. Right now the spread for #1 to #2 is around .10-.15/bu which isn't too bad. If your wheat is a #3 or feed I see those discounts getting worse. The feed market can strengthen if barley catches a run with corn. They all run together to some extent. But #1-2 should see a better premium this year. The same goes for durum. I would be selling the poor stuff and hold the top 2-3 grades. I still think $8/bu is the minimum sell for good durum and I'm not ruling out $8.50-9.00/bu as well.

 

All Regions / Why is HRW wheat higher than HRS wheat?

 

US HRW production is down 45% from last year while US HRS is less scarce. That story is changing though with the ongoing weather issues in North America & elsewhere. The Black Sea situation is also more of a direct hit on Kansas/Chicago wheat because the wheat Russia ships to Africa etc. is more in line with the quality of US HRW.  Historically the Minneapolis futures tend to regain strength relative to Kansas when the spread widens. So I see a trend where Minneapolis rallies more than the rate Kansas drops when that spread starts to adjust back to the normal ~.35/bu premium.

 

All Regions / Has Trump made a deal to access oil from Venezuela and how long will it take to happen?

 

Trump’s Venezuela oil deal is real. A US backed venture has secured access to 17 Venezuelan oil fields, with the US receiving a 35% stake and rights to purchase part of the production at cost. Some oil could begin moving to the US fairly quickly, potentially before the end of 2026. But this is mostly existing production being redirected. Venezuela currently produces roughly 1.2 million bpd, so there isn't suddenly a huge new supply hitting the market. The bigger production increase will take time. Years of underinvestment mean major work to boost production. For crude, this is bearish longer term but probably not a major 2026 price driver. Iran/Hormuz, OPEC+ and global inventories remain more important short term. 

 

MB-3 / I am getting an offer of $4.50/bu delivered on oats and haven't sold any yet. What do you think I should do and how much upside potential is there?

 

I would take the $4.50/bu on 20-30% of what you have to sell. That is a good price for your area. The current upside is capped at .30-.50/bu until there is some improved demand or a bigger run on corn/wheat prices to force the end users to raise their price.

 

MB-4 / I have a September offer of $9/bu for yellow peas picked up in the yard. Our local elevator is only at $7.47/bu and can't take them anytime soon. Is this the upside we have been looking for?

 

Yes $9/bu is a sell on yellow peas. It's nice to see a little life in the market. I would grab 20-30% or cover a good chunk of cash/space on that offer and then we will see if El Nino can help lift the demand in India, to help bring another bump up in the market. The lower chickpea production in Australia may help as well since India will often offset chickpeas by purchasing yellow peas. The China weather issues may bring them back into the market for peas as well. A couple of things I am keeping an eye on.

 

AB-17 / What are your thoughts on HRW cash sales just over $9/bu for August 2027?

 

$9/bu or better is a decent spot to set your floor price for 2027 crops. I still some good upside potential on the Kansas wheat futures so I don't want to rush out and sell a big amount, but I would be okay with 5-10%. I'm also not against just waiting and making the buyer sweat a bit, to maybe force the price higher. If it was my wheat I would sell 5% just to set the tone.

 

AB-19 / Would you take $8.45/bu off the combine for feed wheat?

 

If you need cash I would prefer selling some feed wheat for $8.45/bu so you can sit on other crops like better grading wheat & canola. The feed upside is threatened by the amount of downgrades we are hearing about. A $6/bu hit on corn futures would boost the potential a bit.