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Rec Summary Trading Calendar Crop Reviews On Tap This Week Zones

INFOCENTER

Trump threatened tariffs against Canada over the weekend. The market is down a bit, but I’m not directly tying it to his comments. Supreme Court rulings on all his other tariffs should be coming soon. We’ll see if that holds any weight on prices. For now, China tariff reductions & strength in other veg oils are supporting canola above $600/T as a worst-case for short-term pullbacks.

Canola futures are sitting near the $650/T level to start the week. This is still the short-term cash flow area & the March basis deadline target area. You can use $670-685/T as a target potential for Apr-May & $680-700/T as a longer-term reach for July & Nov futures.

Minneapolis wheat is quiet to start the week. Trying to hold the momentum and make way up to the $5.90/bu target area. Kansas & Chicago are under a little pressure and sit about .15-.20/bu away from the top of the range. Those are the levels to target for short-term sales, and the breakout through the top of the range is what’s needed to confirm any further upside.

Soybeans are flat to start the week. Supply pressure is keeping upside limited but a lower USD is helping support the market. We are watching for $10.80-11/bu to be reached or for some reversals to give us the next cue for sales.

Corn needs to crack the $4.34/bu resistance this week or soon to show any consistent pattern of upside and a possible return to $4.50/bu+. The market is being pulled & supported for the same reasons as soybeans (supply & currency). The next big support remains around $4.00-4.10/bu.

Oats are quiet and upside remains limited to .20-.30/bu on both futures & cash until there are some changes to the S&D outlook or some big swings in wheat & corn futures. Feed grains have been steady in Dec-Jan. You can continue using feed prices for some short-term sales.

Pea markets have had a decent bump since mid-Dec, most recently helped by China trade news. Now we are watching India crop & tariff headlines for the next clues. I would continue making some sales at current values & hold some back for a possible .50/bu jump by spring on some old & new crop.

Lentils are flat for the most part. We saw a few areas hitting .24/lb last week. If we confirm that price is available for everyone, it will prompt a 15% recommendation from us. We are waiting for .02/lb bump in green lentils before making any further sales.

Durum is still a sell for the short-term, with upside limited until there is a bigger move on wheat prices or some increasing demand out of Africa. Refer to our weekly price trend texts to stay up to date on targets & ranges for all the crops we track.

The big fundamentals pieces we are watching right now are SA crop conditions & harvest progress, Russia/Ukraine path to peace, US trade announcements, India crop headlines, and the upcoming BOC/Fed meetings. You can splash in another layer of uncertainty with the recent cold & snow stretch for Canada & some of the US.

This week’s crop reviews focus on the recent S&D numbers for Canada released by AAFC last week. They gave us the first look at expectations for the 2026 crop year. It’s early, and lots can change, but it’s still important to get a sense of what folks are thinking right now. You can access all the S&D info at this link gsminfo.ca/agcan2250

crops

Canola

Canola acres are expected to remain steady, as it is still one of the more profitable crops. They have adjusted the yield down by 13.5% and stocks down by 40% for 2026-2027. This is due to a combo of reduced production & improved use/exports. The end result is a below average S/U of 8.1%. Keeping stocks below 2MMT will be a pretty heroic feat going into the next crop year, so the initial S/U might be a bit low. It’s also worth noting that some adjustments were made to 2025-2026 stocks as well to help keep the old crop S/U below the long-term average. The net result is neutral to helpful info for the canola market.

Wheat

Wheat acres are forecast to be down 2.2%, yield down 11%, and production down 11%. Exports and use will be steady to higher, and stocks will be trimmed by 23%. If realized, it would put the S/U at 15% which is below the average again. There are a lot of other wheat crops around the world that influence prices, but this info is still viewed as helpful for the upcoming crop year.

Soybeans

Soybean info has more effect on basis levels than futures since the US & SA are the bigger fish in the soybean pan and hold much more influence on the soybean futures. Canada acres are forecast to increase by 3% and production might increase 12% if yields are improved. This can push the stocks level to the higher end of the spectrum, and the S/U to 8.3%, which would be above the long-term average. Consider this neutral info until we get a better understanding of 2026 crops in the US.

Corn

Corn info is generally viewed as neutral because of the bigger impacts by global corn crops. But it’s still important to understand how Canada is set up for the upcoming season. Acres & yield are steady, with a modest 2% bump in production. Stocks are anticipated to climb by 19% on higher carry-in levels. The S/U will sit around 11%, which is below the long-term average. A below average S/U is generally viewed as neutral for prices.

Oats

2025 changes leaned in on the bearish side of the market. Exports were reduced by 3% and stocks were increased another 11% (now +64% YoY). This puts the S/U back above the average, which limits the upside potential for sure. The 2026 forecasts steady acres, a return to normal yields, and a 10% reduction in production & stocks. The net result is a 20.5% S/U which is right around the long-term average. The info is viewed as neutral at best for 2026 prices right now.

Peas

Some helpful changes came for 2025 crop estimates. Stocks were cut by 19% and the S/U dropped by 15%. It’s still sitting at a record level S/U, but chipping away is important & helpful. The 2026 crop outlook continues that theme with a 15% drop in acres, a 27% drop in production, improved exports/use, and a 40% drop in stocks. If realized, the S/U would slip by another 17%, much closer to the long-term average, and more neutral to helpful for the market.

Chickpeas

Chickpeas are likely going to see some larger adjustments on acres as the profitability has dropped off quite a bit on them. Plus folks are looking at bigger AUS crops & India demand concerns as a reason to swap out. 2026 acres are forecast to be cut by 18%, yields down 34%, and production down 46%. Stocks are still expected to be higher though because of the massive carryout for 2025 crops. The S/U numbers are over 100%, not the highest they have been, but well above the average. This is negative info for prices, but that can change fast with some improved India trade.

Lentils

Lentil acres are forecast to drop by 10% and production may be down as much as 33% in 2026. Exports & use are forecast to see an uptick as well. This will put some downward pressure on stocks, but they will remain higher than needed without some improved demand from India & other buyers. The net result is S/U will be cut by 11% but remain double the long-term average. This doesn’t change the .02/lb upside, it just limits further upside without some other helpful things coming up.

Durum

Durum acres are looking flat to maybe 7% lower in the upcoming crop year. Production is forecast to drop by 20% with a return to more normal yield trends. This will reduce stocks by 27% with steady use & exports in the picture. The net result is a 6% drop in S/U, which is below the long-term average. That can help support sideways to higher prices for next year’s crop.

Barley

Barley acres are another one of the few crops expected to rise in 2026. Acres may be up 6%, yields down 18%, and production down 13%. Strong exports & use will also help trim the 2025 carry-in, leaving stocks around 1MMT. The net result is a below average stocks to use that can help keep prices supported in this range or higher.

Canary Seed

Canary seed acres are likely to drop off big by 19% due to the lower valuations. A 43% drop in production and improved use can help trim stocks by 8%, but they will remain well above average without stronger demand. The S/U isn’t record high, but it’s over 100%, which isn’t great for the price outlook.

Flax

Flax acres are set to be about the same as last year, maybe a modest 1% increase according to this first forecast. Yields returning to normal trends would push production down by 25%, but stocks will remain flat to higher, and S/U is actually sitting at a record high in this scenario. Prices haven’t really reflected this bearish info, but we also haven’t seen a lot of new crop pricing yet. I’m still thinking $16-18/bu is a realistic range.

Mustard

Mustard acres are expected to jump by 20% as the market climbs up the profitability rankings for 2026. A return to normal yield trends would result in a 4% drop in production & stocks, though. The net result is a modest 5% drop in S/U, but that number would remain double the long-term average in this scenario. If realized, it would be neutral to slightly negative for prices.

Rye

Rye will no doubt see some reductions in 2026 as markets were pressured at the time of seeding decisions last fall. Acres are forecast down 20%, yields returning to normal, and production down 30%. This would help take some stocks pressure off, but the S/U would remain slightly above the long-term average if this scenario is realized. That would be a neutral to negative effect on price without some big help from corn & wheat prices in the next 6 months.

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