Canola​

May canola futures spiked to $758/T on the overnight session after crude jumped to $113/bbl. That was only $9/T away from the contract high. The market has since settled back to near even at $735/T. There are a couple of things to watch here.

 

Closing the gap at $733/T would be a V-top and a gap fill reversal. Those are chart signals that we don’t like to see. Follow through weakness on them would potentially be the next official sell signal. If futures can close at $745/T or higher, they would avoid the reversal pattern.

 

November canola spiked to a new contract high, breaking above the previous high resistance at $730/T, but has also pulled back to below that level at midday. This is a classic V-top as well if the market were to close right where it is. All futures contracts are heavily overbought at this point.

 

If you are sitting under 70% sold on 2025 crop and under 15% sold on 2026 crop, I would be catching up sales. We also have plans to sell another 10% when reversals & follow-through weakness are confirmed.

 

Minneapolis Wheat

May Minneapolis wheat is trading similarly to canola with the overnight spike to $6.70/bu and futures settling back to near where they started.  It seems like most grain companies continue to widen basis and make it difficult to get ahead on cash prices. They will use the small rise in the CAD as a reason, but the main reason for the wider basis is that futures have been moving higher.

 

We are still deciding on the best plan here for the rest of 2025 crop. Targets are probably the way to go, but we want to see how the market trades this week before updating targets. Futures still have a chance to hit $7/bu+ if the US/Iran war continues. And if we get into drought scenarios (or other crop issues) for any of the global wheat areas, it will add some momentum to the market as well.

 

September & December contracts hit new contract highs on the big overnight swing. We haven’t made any recs on 2026 crop sales yet. We are going to decide on the first sale soon.

 

Kansas Wheat

All Kansas wheat contracts hit new contract highs on the overnight spike as well. The one concern with this exchange is that they have filled the gap on this pullback and are leaving a potential v-top reversal, depending on how the futures close. We are monitoring this for any follow-through weakness.

 

The strategy is the same for CPSR & HRWW pricing. We are deciding on where targets should be set for the rest of 2025 crop and haven’t made any 2026 recommendations yet. We are going to decide on the first sale soon.

 

Soybeans

May soybeans gapped higher with crude and came within .23/bu of the contract high at $12.56/bu. The gap has since been filled and the market is trading around the $12/bu mark. Follow-through weakness will likely signal our decision on the final 2025 crop sale.

 

November futures still have a ways to go to hit the contract high. If we can dodge these reversals and follow through weakness, it would still allow us to target $12.00-12.25/bu (+.50/bu) on November futures for the next 2026 crop sale.

 

Corn

May corn broke above the $4.65/bu resistance on the overnight spike but are back to trading below the resistance. Same story here. Need to see futures get above $4.65/bu to open the door for a shot at $4.90-5.00/bu futures. The next attempt at $4.65/bu will likely be our cue for selling or holding the rest of 2025 crop.

 

The December contract has the exact same V-top pattern on the overnight spike to near $5/bu. We are watching for reversals & follow-through weakness before deciding on when to lock in some 2026 crop.

 

Oats

Oats are the only market that didn’t join in on the overnight fun. The May contract has hung around the $3.40-3.50/bu range so far this week. A move above $3.50/bu would tell us to expect another .30-.40/bu upside on 2025 crop. The trouble is cash prices have been very slow to reflect the strength in futures due to slower demand & high carryover. That doesn’t mean we can’t get some cash upside into spring/summer though.

 

New crop contracts are very thin right now, so it’s hard to get a good read on them. From a cash perspective though, I don’t think a .30-.40/bu upside is out of the question, especially if corn & wheat continue their rallies.

 

Yellow Peas

Pea prices have slowed down a bit in some areas after the nice run in Dec-Jan on the back of China/Canada trade sentiment. The high end of the market for 2025 crops is $9/bu in central Alberta, while other areas remain $8/bu or better. 2026 crop prices have been moving up a bit, but the high end seems to be stuck around $8/bu.

 

March heat for India and their crop conditions/trade policy, Aussie exports slowing, US demand (human & pet), China imports, and North American crop outlooks are the 5 main factors we are watching for price trend signals. Continue using current offers for short-term sales, and we are watching for a possible .50/bu upside for the next recommendation by Apr-May on both 2025 & 2026 crop sales.

 

Green Peas

It’s the same story on green peas, but the US & India factors will likely have more impact on this price trend. Greens haven’t moved much lately and still sit in the $10.50-11/bu range. This is a good spot for short-term sales, and I’m not ruling out a .50/bu upside for some sales as well. It’s the same plan for Maple Peas, but the market is currently around $11.50-13/bu depending on area & variety. The upside may be a little stronger for this smaller market as well.

 

Chickpeas

We are undersold on chickpeas with only 30% booked back around harvest time. The market has been flat in the .25-.28/lb range. I want to see if Indian crops start to get hurt by the March heat before jumping the gun on sales. April also has a strong seasonal track record as prices have gained .03-.05/lb during the month for 6 straight years. The S&D numbers might limit the upside potential a bit, but I’m willing to wait and see. We don’t have any price indication for 2026 crops from our price sources, so there are no recommendations yet.

 

Red Lentils

There are still concerns about India increasing their lentil tariffs by the end of March. The possibility of a 20% hike on lentil tariffs would for sure weaken our export demand to India, and it wouldn't help our burdensome stocks situation. I'm thinking be more aggressive on your lentil sales right now to limit risk from this event.

 

Red lentils have been holding steady at .24-.25/lb for the past few weeks. You can continue using this range for short-term needs, up to 70-80% sold on 2025 crop. The new crop market is quiet with early offers at .22/lb with an AOG. We are not recommending 2026 crop sales just yet.

 

We are willing to hold a small amount back for a possible rise into Apr-May on weather concerns. If the March heat impacts crops in India, Pakistan, and elsewhere, it would help improve pricing. The US/Iran war can have some spillover effect on pulse prices as well. Upside remains limited to .02/lb based on the current S&D setup.

 

Green Lentils

Lairds have been flat for a couple of months now with 2025 crop stuck at .25-.27/lb at best, and early 2026 crop offers around .25/lb with an AOG. It’s the same story for Eston’s but prices are lower with 2025 crop at .19-.20/lb and early 2026 crop offers at .19/lb.

 

The market has some better seasonal stats for March & April, but without some shift in the S&D outlook we can’t expect more than a .02/lb increase. It will take a big change in global demand or a lower North American crop to really move the needle on lentils.

 

Durum

2025 durum prices seem to be holding around $8/bu. 2026 prices took a step higher as well last week. One company in SK-7 bumped their offer to $9/bu. Other regions haven’t seen quite the momentum yet. If wheat continues to rally, it should provide additional support for durum prices.

 

Use the current price range to shore up short-term needs, up to 70% sold, and I would be waiting for a minimum of $8/bu to start 2026 crop. I think .50/bu is a realistic upside for low-priced regions. If you are in the area with access to $9/bu I would start 5-10%. March & April have some occurrence of seasonal upside, but May is often the better month to get some good action on prices.

 

Barley

The feed barley market has held near the top of the range recently, with high-end (feedlot alley) offers at $6/bu. Exports are still running at a strong clip, well above last year. I am watching for some strength into May to clean up sales.

 

2025 malt production should be sold by now. The market has been pretty flat since the small .20/bu gain that was noted back in January. We also recently reviewed the seasonal trend and the malt market often drifts sideways to lower into spring/summer.

 

With consumption down & no real strong demand, further upside seems limited. 2026 offers are coming out in a just-okay range. I would still get my foot in the door with some sales, as maltsters aren’t inclined to offer more for off-combine, knowing that folks will need the movement.

 

Canary Seed

 

The canary market remains quiet amid high supply, flat demand, and limited upside until one or both of those change. We are sitting at 40% sold on 2025 crop and 0% sold on 2026 crop. The plan is to hold into spring/summer and either get a lucky bounce to .20/lb or better, or sell for the same range we can get right now. June is often the next best month for some sales.

 

Flax

The flax market has started to improve over the past week or so. The best price I have found lately is around the $17/bu on 2025 crop in SK, and 2026 pricing I haven’t heard much at all yet. I am still confident we will see $17-18/bu again on 2025 crop for all regions, and $17-18/bu is the ideal starting range for 2026 crop.

 

There is a strong tendency for prices to increase in Apr-May. The re-opening of the St. Lawrence Seaway often provides a boost in demand, as flax programs rely more heavily on vessel space than rail for US movement. The US/Iran war can provide some spillover support through the price of oil & vegetable oil in general.

 

Mustard

Mustard prices are showing some pressure lately. Yellow prices are down to .38-.40/lb now. Brown prices are holding around .32-.35/lb right now. The plan is to wait for a minimum .02-.03/lb jump in prices before we make the next sales. April has proven to be a strong month in the first 4 years of our seasonal price tracking. The market has closed higher by the end of the month in all 4 years.

 

Rye

The rye market has seen limited price movement for a while now. The one silver lining is that if corn & wheat futures can run into spring/summer, it may help drag the market up. We are sitting at 60% sold on 2025 crop and 30% sold on 2026 crop.

 

The 2025 market is stuck at $5.25/bu at best and there aren’t many (or any) 2026 offers to work with right now. I have a few buyers that will let me know when they have some pricing available. We will decide on the strategy when those offers are on the table.

 

Faba Beans

The Faba market is quiet right now. Feed prices are steady around the $7/bu mark and we haven’t heard many Food offers out there as of late. We don’t have a line on any 2026 crop pricing, but it’s on the to-do list. April is often a decent seasonal window to get some sales going on Faba’s.