Canola

November canola needs to stay above $800/T to keep the short-term uptrend rolling. Doing so would mean another chance to hit $840/T or higher before harvest. A break of $800/T would signal a possible slide to $700-750/T, and a move above $850/T would signal a possible rally to $900/T or higher. We may also have to deal with some harvest pressure sooner than later, but I don’t see the market slipping below $700/T based on the current S&D info.

 

Wheat

Wheat is also testing some trendline support to start the week. September Minneapolis needs to hold above $7/bu, September Kansas needs to hold above $7.20/bu, and September Chicago needs to stay above $6.60/bu to avoid a further .30-.50/bu slide.

 

We are using the contract highs as a possible target for the next sales on wheat. That would be $7.53/bu Minneapolis , $7.75/bu Kansas, and $7.10/bu Chicago. The Minneapolis contract high is from the rally in May, while Kansas and Chicago made those new contract highs last week.

 

Soybeans

November Soybeans are taking the biggest hit this morning, moving down to test last week’s gap at $12.04-12.07/bu as the next support for the market. If the gap is filled and prices fall below $12/bu, that will be a good indicator for a bigger pullback to the moving avg line at $11.72/bu.

 

Holding the gap area would be a strong signal for a retest of $12.40-12.70/bu. It would take a move above $12.70/bu to confirm any further upside. And, if that happens, we start talking about some pretty big jumps. Will cross that bridge if we get to!

 

Corn

December corn is moving down to the trendline support at $4.60-4.70/bu. Holding this range is important for avoiding a further .30-.50/bu pullback. We are using $5.00-5.10/bu as the next target area for a sale, unless reversals/chart trends suggest otherwise. This week’s crop outlook in the US will also be a big deciding factor for the trend heading into August.

 

Oats

Oats prices have been holding in the same range for the past while now. $4.00-4.35/bu has been the selling opportunity for higher-priced areas, and we don’t want to be selling for less than $3.75/bu in low-priced regions.

 

The futures trend hasn’t been a big driver of price lately, but the December contract will hit oversold territory soon after a .30/bu pullback. Holding above $3.30/bu is important this week. That would keep a recovery to $3.70-3.80/bu on the table.

 

Peas

Pea prices are in a quiet cycle as buyers look ahead to new crop coming off in western Canada. Harvest is approaching and there are some good looking pea crops in many areas. The acres are down, but we have a large carryover from last season. That can limit upside potential.

 

We are also waiting for further indications on where global demand will be. We know China isn’t buying starch content, but we don’t know how much whole peas India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, US or China will be buying this season. There is lots up in the air.

 

We are still anticipating a minimum .50/bu recovery in yellow, greens, maple peas, and .03-.04/lb on chickpeas after harvest. I also wouldn’t rule out further upside because of food price inflation, war premiums, and weather affecting some regions.

 

Lentils

Lentil prices are also held back for the same cyclical reasons as peas. The one big difference is that lentil crops are not looking nearly as good right now because of all the wet conditions. I talked to many people at Ag in Motion last week who were not excited about their lentil crops. That will reduce the supply pressure in Canada and can help lift prices marginally on all varieties.

 

Global demand is also at a point of uncertainty. We can see India & Middle Eastern countries importing more because of El Nino & war pressures. On the other hand, Turkey & Australia have better crops in the picture right now.

 

Turkey harvest is underway and that can be a big competitor for those Middle East sales. India just had a 40% below normal rainfall in June & July was a bit better. Signs point toward more imports by India. Australia lentil & pea crops are in good shape, but there is still a good stretch of time for that to change.

 

All in all, we are still forecasting a .03-.04/lb recovery on all lentil varieties after harvest, and I’m still not ruling out double that upside if the S&D trend comes together a little more bullish. Lentils like to move fast when the right reasons come up.

 

Durum

Durum prices are up against some pretty big headwinds right now. There are a lot of great looking crops in durum country right now, along with a big carryover from last year. Morocco & Algeria are set up with better crops this year, so that can limit the demand for durum into some of Africa. Egypt is still buying good amounts of wheat though.

 

This information doesn’t mean durum can’t recover. There are still some reasons to anticipate at least a small recovery in price.

 

Russia/Ukraine elevated war is creating logistics and export challenges. Their harvest is underway, and getting the grain to market has become riskier for sure. The Black Sea has dodged a lot of the heat that has hit the EU crop this year, so it’s more a shipping issue than a production issue.

 

These two factors raise the price of wheat in the Black Sea, which in turn increases the price of wheat on the futures. That alone can help lift durum to $8/bu or better again. Our initial forecast of $8.50-9.00/bu might be a bit too bullish unless wheat futures go on a big run.

 

Barley

The feed barley market has been flat to lower over the past couple of weeks. This is typical from a seasonal perspective. North American feed supply is likely going to be higher. That will keep the upside a little subdued. The recent rebound in corn & wheat futures can help though.

 

The market is also anticipating renewed Chinese exports, EU crop issues, and a touch of Black Sea harvest pressure. High-end offers sit around $6/bu, and the low end is $4.60/bu or better. Let’s give the market some time to recover before adding more sales. I would like to see a .30-.50/bu recovery in prices with a minimum of $5/bu for low-priced areas.

 

The malt barley market has been quiet as buyers monitor grain quality and wait for the first new crop estimates. I see a few line companies offering $6.00-6.15/bu, but I haven’t heard any maltster bids recently. We are recommending the first 20-30% of 2026 crop production at current values. Then we will keep an eye on supply estimates and malt/feed spreads as harvest approaches. Slowing consumption remains a negative factor to keep in mind.

 

Canary Seed

The canary market remains stuck at .19-.21/lb with very little excitement on the S&D front to help chase the market higher. The market remains flat simply because of a high carryover and lack of demand growth. We will be looking to make a big sale in the seasonal window of Sept-Oct.

 

Flax

The flax market has been quiet lately, but not seeing any significant pressure is a good thing. The removal of trade barriers with the EU is the one big factor that remains important going forward. European food use & no testing protocols is a recipe for easier exports and better pricing. Those added costs, in theory, shouldn’t be passed down to you anymore.

 

Canada acres are up this year, but they are still below the 10-year average. Upcoming production will be the main price setter here going forward, as it seems the demand is in place. The price range seems to be hanging around $16-17/bu. Let’s give this market some time. I anticipate more opportunities to sell at $17-18/bu or possibly higher depending on yields in Canada.

 

Mustard

Mustard prices have been flat to lower for the last month. Yellow prices are trading around .38/lb and Brown prices are stuck around .35/lb. Canadian crops are generally in very good condition, but excess moisture has increased disease concerns. EU & US crops are in a similar situation, but maybe less disease pressure.

 

Steady demand can help the market a bit, but the higher crop potential will limit the upside. This can change if there are any final weather issues in August. We are waiting for .02-.03/lb upside to lock in any meaningful amounts of 2026 crop.

 

Rye

The rye market is holding steady in the same range for the past month or so. The high-end of the market is around $5.25-5.75/bu on 2026 crop. This varies widely depending on where your farm is. Rye has been stuck in a lower range because supplies got too large relative to demand.

 

Feed demand is tough with so many alternatives to work with, and trade uncertainty with the US still has some ‘risk’ built into prices. Some of that can change with upcoming production potential off less acres in Canada, and the ongoing discussions about USMCA. A big run on corn/wheat would also help increase Rye prices after harvest. We are holding at 20-30% sold at current prices.

 

Faba Beans

The Faba market woke up a bit recently, with some areas hitting $7.50/bu for spot movement on feed (Snowbirds). Food grade (Fabelle) offers are still sitting around $10-14/bu on 2026 crop. There aren’t any 2026 feed bids listed on our online sources yet. We are currently in the best seasonal window to get some sales going on Faba’s, so you can continue selling at current prices!