Most grain & oilseeds are up to start the shortened week of trade. Corn is the only market dragging its heels this morning. Wheat is up in response to some war & export news. Canola is approaching the contract highs again following some strength in crude & bean oil.
Strong crush & tight Canadian stocks continue to attract buyers & push the Canola trend higher. Russia/Ukraine peace talks fell through after more overnight attacks. Russia’s alternative grain route is under threat as well, with Latvia planning a 300% tariff on grain.
Middle East tensions escalated again. Houthi attacks hit Saudi cities and oil infrastructure, while Iran threatens a new Gulf exclusion zone. Hormuz traffic remains extremely thin. Iran/Oman are still working toward a temporary safe corridor, but it is not a full reopening yet.
China soybean demand is becoming more complicated. State firms have bought roughly 11 MMT of US beans, but private crushers remain sidelined by high costs, poor margins, and the 10% tariff. Brazil inventories are tightening as well, adding another layer of difficulty for China. Trump & Xi will meet later this month on September 24th.
There are two big reports to monitor this week. Stats Canada stocks on Wednesday and USDA WASDE on Friday. Stats Canada measures the grain physically remaining on farms plus commercial stocks as of July 31st.
Canola stocks will likely (or should) see the biggest reduction based on the crush & export numbers. Wheat & durum carryout’s are likely to increase after last year’s big crops. Lentil & pea numbers aren’t likely to provide any bullish momentum. The best-case is to see less ‘big numbers’ than expected.
For USDA, the market setup is clearer for this month. Corn yields are expected to come down, but the debate is whether it’s only 1-2bu/ac or closer to the Pro Farmer’s huge 7.5bu/ac cut. Less change is expected with the soybean yield estimates, but I can see stocks dropping with the recent surge in demand.
We already know the wheat crop is very low, and ending stocks are down at least 20% YoY. The big question is can there be further cuts, and how will USDA handle the Black Sea exports situation.
The other big event I am following is the Super El Nino buzz. A Wired article over the weekend noted that it was shaping up to be the strongest El Nino on record with the WMO saying there is nearly a 100% chance of it lasting through February. The weather phenomenon hasn’t peaked yet, so heat, drought, floods, and other extremes can worsen into year-end and into 2027.
The biggest risk is likely for Brazil, where soy yields can be hurt by heat & drought and corn planting can be delayed if soy planting takes longer than usual. Monsoon weakness & drought risk for India is a bullish piece of info for pulses & edible oil imports.
The Middle East, Turkey, Africa, the EU, Australia, and China will also see varying levels of heat & drought, which can limit production availability and increase import dependence. Canada can experience warm winters and drought concerns into 2027. US weather would remain volatile, bringing late risks to corn/soy and winter wheat plantings.
There are also reports that Greer & LeBlanc will meet soon to discuss US/Canada trade. However, I also read a Reuters bulletin saying no talks are underway. We will monitor this situation and provide more news in a report later this week.
As per usual, there are a million things happening all at once for the markets to digest. The goal is to see futures crack the last highs, get into new contract territory, then extend the upside into the end of the year.
Canola
The next target for November canola is $875-900/T, and I’m not ruling out $1000/T if the fundamentals stay bullish. We are also watching for $800-850/T as a starting point for a small 2027 crop sale. There is good support at $750-780/T if the market has any short-term setbacks.
Wheat
December Minneapolis wheat is trying to build support along the trendline near $7.25-7.40/bu. The next target is the last high at $7.90/bu, and a move above that would confirm a further .50/bu upside. December Kansas wheat is following a similar path with support at $7.60-7.80/bu, a resistance target at $8.50/bu, and the same .50/bu upside after $8.50/bu. The support for December Chicago wheat is $7.00-7.25/bu and the two targets for sales are around $7.85/bu & $8.50/bu.
Soybeans
November Soybeans are actually building a bit of a bull flag scenario right now. This recent sideways trade between $12.90/bu and $13.25/bu is starting to look like the flag in a bullish chart pattern. A break above $13.25/bu would confirm the signal, and a drop below $12.90/bu would be a sell signal. If the bull flag materializes, it would put $14/bu on the table.
Corn
December corn is slipping a bit, but is still holding above the first support at $5.26/bu. This is kind of a make-or-break point for the short-term trend. If we see a fall below $5.20/bu I would be worried that there will be a bigger slide. A break above $5.50/bu would confirm an additional .50/bu upside to $6/bu. This weakness may also be the funds setting up to go long on a bullish announcement by USDA on Friday.
Oats
Oats futures are holding above a minor resistance at $3.60/bu to start the week. The December contract is eying $3.85/bu as the next resistance. After that, it’s the weekly chart resistance at $4.00-4.25/bu.
Cash prices remain steady in about the same range they have been in for a while now. I wouldn’t sell for less than $3.75/bu in low-priced regions. You can target $4/bu for a bit if you are in those areas. And high-priced regions should be looking for minimum $4.50/bu and targeting .20-.30/bu above the current market for bigger sales.
Peas
Yellow peas have been moving higher the past couple of weeks, with prices rising to $8.75/bu in high-priced areas. We are weighing the risk/reward on this bump in the market, and will make a decision on whether to sell or hold later this week.
Greens & Maples are stagnant with abundant supply and US trade uncertainty holding the market back. The Super El Nino is the one factor that can save pulse prices going forward. We are still anticipating a minimum .50/bu recovery before locking in prices on either.
Chickpeas responded nicely to the big Aussie cut. Prices reached up to .29/lb in some areas last week. We are also weighing the risk/reward on this market, deciding whether to sell a bit now or to hold for .32/lb.
Lentils
Small red lentils have been improving in some areas, with reports of .25/lb coming across our desk last week. My next target range is .26/lb or a .02/lb jump in price in low-priced areas. Canadian supply & world weather are the driving factors right now.
Green lentils haven’t moved much lately, and our best-case upside is still around .03-.04/lb after harvest. We would double all lentils upside potential if the S&D turns more bullish in the next month. The Indian drought is the big saving grace to watch for.
The one lingering negative trend is the potential record-sized Aussie red lentil crop. I think we’ll need to sell a good chunk of lentils if that crop makes it to the bin come Nov-Dec.
Durum
Durum prices are still held back by the large carryover and big crops in Africa & Turkey limiting the demand. This is keeping prices in a tight sideways range. But we are seeing a lot of Canadian durum being downgraded right now. This is putting durum spreads more on the radar this year.
If you have high quality, I would hold for $8/bu minimum, and potentially higher if the Black Sea export delays & wheat futures can be sustained. If you are dealing with the low grades or feed, you’ll want to get that stuff moved sooner than later.
Barley
The feed barley market has been flat to slightly higher over the past couple of weeks. North American feed supply is likely going to be higher. That will keep the upside a little subdued. Any recovery in corn & wheat futures can help. Another negative factor lately has been the poor feedlot margins with cattle futures on a temporary pullback.
The market is anticipating renewed Chinese exports, EU crop issues, and Black Sea shipping constraints. High-end offers sit around $6/bu, and the low end is $5/bu or better. Let’s give the market some time to recover before adding more sales. I would like to see a .30-.50/bu recovery in prices with a minimum of $5.25-5.50/bu for low-priced areas.
The malt barley market has been quiet as buyers monitor grain quality. I see a few line companies offering $6.00-6.15/bu, but I haven’t heard any maltster bids recently. We have some decisions to make in the next month or two as more consistent bids come in.
Canary Seed
The canary market remains stuck at .19/lb with very little excitement on the S&D front to help chase the market higher. The market remains flat simply because of a high carryover and lack of demand growth. We will be looking to make a big sale in the seasonal window of Sept-Oct.
Flax
The flax market has been quiet lately. Russia export duties, Kazakh production, EU demand, and Canadian supply are the 4 big factors to watch. We are still anticipating a minimum $17/bu price, with the possibility of $18-20/bu on brown flax in the Nov-Feb time frame.
Mustard
Mustard prices have been flat to lower for the last month. Yellow prices are trading around .38/lb and Brown prices are stuck around .35/lb. Canadian crops are generally in good condition, but excess moisture has increased disease concerns. EU & US crops are in a similar situation, but maybe less disease pressure.
Steady demand can help the market a bit, but the higher crop potential will limit the upside. This can change if there are any final weather issues in September. We are waiting for .02-.03/lb upside to lock in 2026 crop.
Rye
The rye market is holding steady with some small gains recently. The high-end of the market is around $5.75/bu spot and $6/bu deferred. End users are waiting to see how legitimate the corn & wheat rally is before making any big changes to their prices.
The ongoing US/Canada trade issues, slowing liquor consumption, and rising feed supply are 3 factors that will limit the upside. We are weighing the risk/reward of trying to time out a .30-.50/bu gain if corn futures take off.
Faba Beans
The Faba market has been quiet, with most areas around $7.25/bu for spot movement on feed (Snowbirds). Food grade (Fabelle) offers are still sitting around $8-10/bu on 2026 crop. You can continue selling at current prices for harvest movement, then we will assess the S&D.
Sept 8
MB Crop Report
US Crop Progress
Sept 9
Stats Canada Stocks
Sept 10
OPEC Monthly
SK Crop Report
Sept 11
USDA S&D
AB Crop Report
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Crop watch / yield reports
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Watching for sell signals
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+ the usual reports
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